Who do you think will be the 2028 nominees for each Party? [View all]

[Polybius]

We always hear about 2024, but that's boring (and divisive, because Biden is our President and he said that he's running again if he remains healthy). It will almost certainly be Biden and Trump (assuming that he'd not indited and is relatively healthy as well). So let's talk about 2028.

Only one thing is certain about 2028: It won't be Biden or Trump, no matter who wins in 2024, one reason being age. So who will it be? Well, first we must divide the question into two different scenarios. One if we win in 2024, and one if we lose. The 2028 Republican nominee won't make much difference on 2028 regardless if they win or lose in 2024, but ours will.

ON THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE

If we win in 2024 (and I suspect that we will), Harris will be the clear favorite in 2028. While I don't think that there will be any serious challengers, I could be wrong. There could be some. I expect the VP to win. Sitting VP's haven't lost their Party's nomination in over a century.

If we lose in 2024, it's a whole new ballgame. I'd expect a fierce primary. Harris will almost certainly run, but I doubt that she would win the nomination. After a Party loses, the VP usually doesn't get the nomination again. Dan Quale tried this in 2000 and didn't come close, and I suspect the same will happen to Pence if he runs in 2024. Biden did, but as VP his Party won twice. So who will it be? Pete Buttigieg will be 46, but I don't know if he'd be the front-runner. Blinken? Possibly. Gavin Newsom? I like this choice. He'll be 60, still young. AOC? She'll turn 39 in the October before the election, but winning nationally might be a stretch. Beto? If he can pull of an upset in Texas this year and get re-elected in 2026, than oh yeah he's the frontrunner. But that's a very big IF. Now...

ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE

Tucker Carlson would be my guess. They seem to love snake oil salesmen, and he does have a big following on their side. Can he fire up a crowd as good as Trump? I don't know, but he doesn't seem so. Can he debate himself to a win in the primaries like Trump did? Absolutely (against their people at least). He made Ted Cruz choke, who himself is a good debater. As for Cruz, I guess he'd have a chance, but I expect him to finish 2nd or 3rd more than 1st. Perhaps he'll be their VP choice. Donald Jr.? I doubt it. No charisma, even if Trump wind in 2024 and he's running an coattails. Josh Hawley? Perish the thought. Rubio? He has to win his own Senate Seat first. DeSantis? Probably has the best shot to the nomination out of all of them, but my guess is still Tucker. Remember, they are insane. They picked Trump, and will likely pick him again.

Opinions?