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TygrBright

(20,850 posts)
17. This refers to two months back, there's a definite reason for releasing it now.
Tue Apr 26, 2022, 07:33 PM
Apr 2022

It was clear enough then that US and other NATO intel was providing fire control and asset management information to UA, just based on results.

Even with that help, UA demonstrated some pretty hoopy chops in the early days, but Russia had to know they were getting help.

Why "confirm" it now?

I suspect several factors came together, but among them:

Macron's electoral victory led directly to the provision of 155mm truck-mounted "Ceasar" cannon, and Macron becoming much more forthcoming about France's commitment to assisting Ukraine.

Russia's clumsy threats about nuclear retaliation to Britain were a clear attempt at intimidation.

Finland and Sweden publicly acknowledging and announcing a timeline for their intent to apply for NATO membership.

Recent visits by high-level US officials to Kyiv.

This looks to me like a coordinated ratcheting operation, increasing pressure on the Sov... sorry, "Russia", to prevent them from escalating. The U.S. publicly acknowledging this assistance provokes all kinds of questions, including what assistance are we providing that we're NOT acknowledging.

It's a very delicate balance, pushing at the Russians' paranoia, getting them to imagine things, confirming past help but not hinting about current efforts, pulling the "retaliation" rug out of their propaganda arsenal.

I think there are very experienced, very careful strategists working on this.

speculatively,
Bright

Does anybody else feel like there was an OPSEC violation in getting this news out? ColinC Apr 2022 #1
OPSEC? calimary Apr 2022 #2
OPerational SECurity. temporary311 Apr 2022 #4
Aha! Got it. Thanks! calimary Apr 2022 #19
Operational security..... getagrip_already Apr 2022 #5
I was not familiar with that one. Thanks! I wasn't even ready to venture a guess. calimary Apr 2022 #20
It sure feels that way, but nevertheless I think it's unlikely. hedda_foil Apr 2022 #3
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Apr 2022 #6
Well ColinC Apr 2022 #9
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Apr 2022 #10
Same on both regards. ColinC Apr 2022 #14
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Apr 2022 #15
The US has been openly "leaking" information like this. joshcryer Apr 2022 #12
Makes sense. ColinC Apr 2022 #16
Yup denbot Apr 2022 #22
I'm also surprised this intel was released. WarGamer Apr 2022 #7
Russia knows we're sharing intelligence. They have to know Wingus Dingus Apr 2022 #8
This message was self-deleted by its author Chin music Apr 2022 #11
I am getting tired off reading all this OPSEC info blurted out, can't anybody keep their lips shut? Shanti Shanti Shanti Apr 2022 #13
This refers to two months back, there's a definite reason for releasing it now. TygrBright Apr 2022 #17
Maybe this is saying "Remember the bounty you put on American soldiers? Well here ya go!" dameatball Apr 2022 #18
Rumor is a US P-8 Poseidon located and transmitted the location of the missile cruiser Moskva to UKR EX500rider Apr 2022 #21
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»U.S. intel helped Ukraine...»Reply #17