General Discussion

exboyfil

(18,359 posts)

17. Assuming Obama has Ohio

Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:24 PM

Nov 2012

Even with coin toss odds on the remaining 8 states, Romney has only a 4.3% chance of a win or a tie. That is assuming independent odds on each state. Basically 11 combinations out of 256.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

58 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

WOW: Nate Silver Took A Huge Shot Against Mainstream Political Pundits In His... [View all] WillyT Nov 2012 OP

He does not suffer fools gladly. GentryDixon Nov 2012 #1

+1. '..abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.' freshwest Nov 2012 #33

The pundits have been going after him a lot more this time around, and I think he's fed up with it. FVZA_Colonel Nov 2012 #38

And mainstream punditry is chock full of fools. JHB Nov 2012 #48

Nor should he tavalon Nov 2012 #56

CBS last night wryter2000 Nov 2012 #2

Nate does not suffer fools like Schieffer at all. speedoo Nov 2012 #8

255? So they have Ohio with Obama exboyfil Nov 2012 #9

Apparently in pundit world, 15 = 64 fujiyama Nov 2012 #14

Flat out - D v R framing Cosmocat Nov 2012 #16

Yup, its the math stupid. riderinthestorm Nov 2012 #36

Math is not their strong point. We already know this! mnhtnbb Nov 2012 #52

Yeah, but pundits say stupid things for a living, and freepers generlly just do it as a hobby. n/t D23MIURG23 Nov 2012 #58

This is very healthy; the pundits are useless BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #3

Once again... txdemsftw Nov 2012 #4

Indeed. BouzoukiKing Nov 2012 #12

VERY good point. calimary Nov 2012 #23

Not just any math. ARITHMETIC! Horse with no Name Nov 2012 #34

Exactly. TahitiNut Nov 2012 #42

Then again, briv1016 Nov 2012 #43

He's under attack as much as Obama. Charlie Rose "prosecuted" him. SleeplessinSoCal Nov 2012 #5

at least two possibilties to Romney win Melissa G Nov 2012 #6

If Nate wanted to back up his numbers with what the chance Dustlawyer Nov 2012 #45

As I heard someone point out the pundits predictions are less reliable than a coin toss Anthony McCarthy Nov 2012 #7

Assuming Obama has Ohio exboyfil Nov 2012 #17

On This Weeks Geo Stephanopolis INdemo Nov 2012 #57

Nate Silver doesn't just aggregate polls, they get put through his own software which JaneyVee Nov 2012 #10

wooooooo! that's got to smart for the jackasses like Ed and Tweets and Rach. Whisp Nov 2012 #11

Nonsense davekriss Nov 2012 #20

^^^ This is correct ^^^ oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #31

^^^That is incorrect^^^ Whisp Nov 2012 #51

and ... media please stop ... Democrats4All Nov 2012 #13

If I have read or heard SLIGHT Cosmocat Nov 2012 #15

Welcome to DU, Democrats4All! calimary Nov 2012 #24

I'll bet 10 thousand dollars that Obama wins (n/t) thesquanderer Nov 2012 #18

Nate Silver is partially wrong TomClash Nov 2012 #19

Exactly Tom fasttense Nov 2012 #44

LOL! Folks, it's all about the MONEY! Up2Late Nov 2012 #21

Getting a dose of fox news without my consent and it's an alternate universe there mountain grammy Nov 2012 #26

It's not just Fox pscot Nov 2012 #49

spoken like the endearing nerd that he is. Hamlette Nov 2012 #22

"Shotsfired", huh? Well, then Cha Nov 2012 #25

Nate makes a **HUGE** error here. garybeck Nov 2012 #27

Yes, good point dreamnightwind Nov 2012 #30

Fraud. nt riderinthestorm Nov 2012 #37

He basically says that the only way Mitt Romney wins RomneyLies Nov 2012 #28

Republicans and their pundits felix_numinous Nov 2012 #29

Wait til they find out Mr. Silver used to write on DailyKos. blkmusclmachine Nov 2012 #32

Dear MSM: Please "inform rather than entertain." Thank you. n/t Beartracks Nov 2012 #35

Nate Silver is the man. I'd love to meet him and shake his hand. dorksied Nov 2012 #39

He is like the Moneyball guy only with polling. Taking on conventional wisdom and improving Quixote1818 Nov 2012 #40

k&r n/t RainDog Nov 2012 #41

GOOD, Becasue the mainstream pundits are more or less irrelevant Iggy Nov 2012 #46

Interesting take, considering that he never once mentioned "mainstream political pundits"! George II Nov 2012 #47

The newz is just another TV show... heppcatt Nov 2012 #50

Nate Silver may have forgotten a few things lobodons Nov 2012 #53

oooga booga! the sky is falling!! MjolnirTime Nov 2012 #55

Does Nate factor in turnout? cilla4progress Nov 2012 #54