Trent Telenko on Russian Mobilization and the Coming Winter.

[paleotn]

8. That's is a very, very good point....

It's a complex mix of physical and above all, psychological exhaustion, coupled with a lack of motivation from the start. Most Russian troops just don't want to be there. For the Ukrainians, it's a different equation. A fight for national survival plays a huge part and should never be overlooked, but combat takes it's toll no matter what.

Dad use to talk about this very thing in WWII. They'd spend 10 days or so on the line normally and then a few days in the rear for rest and refit. But it was never enough rest. At The Bulge, they were in near continuous combat for almost a month before any significant relief. And no matter how much rest they did get, combat effectiveness inexorably declined as total days on the line accrued. After about 150 to 200 days it plunged. He saw really tough, experienced units become completely combat ineffective as veterans became mentally exhausted and the merry-go-round of replacements kept getting killed and wounded. If the Russians try to fold the new levies into existing units as replacements, don't bother learning their names. They'll be gone in less than a week, replaced by someone else who's name you won't bother to learn. With only a few weeks "training" since all the Russian trainers are either dead, wounded or in combat units, that cycle will run even faster. A meat grinder. Create new formations with inexperienced command and control? The end result will be even worse.