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brooklynite

(96,882 posts) Tue Oct 4, 2022, 11:59 AM Oct 2022

Cook Political Report: Pennsylvania Senate Moves Back to Toss Up [View all]

When we shifted our Pennsylvania Senate rating to Lean Democrat about six weeks ago, we included this key caveat — Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up, and that while Republican Mehmet Oz still has a hefty problem with his own favorables, that "it's not out of the question that this could move back [to Toss Up] as the election nears."

Now, with five weeks until Election Day, that's exactly where we find this race. In conversations with several GOP strategists and lawmakers — who a month and a half ago had begun to put the Keystone State in the loss column — this has emerged as a margin-of-error race that they once again see winnable. Republicans and Democrats alike admit the race has tightened and that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state for the Senate majority.

As of Monday evening, the current FiveThirtyEight average shows Fetterman ahead by 6 points, while RealClearPolitics puts the Democrat with a 4.1 point advantage. But recent polls have shown the margin clearly closing between the two

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/pennsylvania-senate/pennsylvania-senate-moves-back-toss

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Cook Political Report: Pennsylvania Senate Moves Back to Toss Up [View all] brooklynite Oct 2022 OP

That's really bad news bucolic_frolic Oct 2022 #1

Yes. He should disavow his whole career. NoRethugFriends Oct 2022 #2

That's a sarcastic statement of universal generalization bucolic_frolic Oct 2022 #3

He is campaigning as the person he is NoRethugFriends Oct 2022 #11

Dems needed a strong November candidate - we desperately need that seat empedocles Oct 2022 #4

Fetterman always held some middle positions...can't help that in midwestern state. But he is OK Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #18

Until the news gets around that Oz used animals and left them to die. kimbutgar Oct 2022 #5

I hear it is coming...he is already all over twitter discussing this...using the campaign logo. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #15

Many of the lab animals were euthanized FakeNoose Oct 2022 #17

No this was not early in his career. He was born in 60. He began his residency in 1986. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #31

OK I stand corrected FakeNoose Oct 2022 #33

And many were left to die in their cages...all animals involved in a study are killed after the Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #32

I've seen the anti-Fetterman ads: They're basically, : "He lets felons out of jail." lindysalsagal Oct 2022 #6

The GOP are running the same Willie Horton style, attack ads against Mandela Barnes. sarcasmo Oct 2022 #10

And yet the polls are close with most of them showing that Mandel Barnes has the edge...and I Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #14

I think many PA people know the truth about this...two kids stop and give either a friend or Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #16

Every single GOP campaign is the same thing budkin Oct 2022 #19

The ads need to start hitting back, hard peggysue2 Oct 2022 #28

I don't think that's a good idea jimfields33 Oct 2022 #35

We'll have to agree to disagree, Jim peggysue2 Oct 2022 #37

I think the 'soft on crime' attack is doing some damage. Amishman Oct 2022 #64

If Mastriano should somehow manage to win.... TheRealNorth Oct 2022 #7

Mastriano is losing very badly...his last 'big' rally had 60 people including the media. There are Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #12

Yeah Mastriano should be removed from the Pennsylvania legislature FakeNoose Oct 2022 #21

I know staunch Republicans who won't vote for Mastriano Sugarcoated Oct 2022 #39

I call bullshit PlanetBev Oct 2022 #8

I call bullshit on Cook. I have not seen one poll that supports this. Fetterman is going to win. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #9

Cook is a very accurate poll analyzer. They are saying it is leaning Democratic in the Senate JohnSJ Oct 2022 #20

Too many people seem uncomfortable with any bad news... brooklynite Oct 2022 #24

We are on the same page Brooklynite, and Cook is a very accurate poll analyzer, and trying to write JohnSJ Oct 2022 #27

No, they are saying the PA Senate race is now a toss-up. W_HAMILTON Oct 2022 #30

It probably is a toss-up. The latest polls that I have seen only show Fetterman up by around two JohnSJ Oct 2022 #43

Then the NC Senate race should also be a toss-up. W_HAMILTON Oct 2022 #48

I think so. Between a lean or a toss-up, I think are the same thing, which is why I state turnout JohnSJ Oct 2022 #49

In a normal year that might be true...but Cook and others are underestimating the Roe vote. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #34

It will all depend on turnout JohnSJ Oct 2022 #45

He did not pick up New York 19...you would think that would give him pause. Doom and gloom Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #62

Not worried at all after the dead puppies report budkin Oct 2022 #13

I'm afraid to ask Tickle Oct 2022 #22

Here you go budkin Oct 2022 #23

I knew it would be upsetting Tickle Oct 2022 #26

The puppy story is really disgusting peggysue2 Oct 2022 #29

The OP can't stand Fetterman. BannonsLiver Oct 2022 #57

That is true...doom and gloom all the time. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #65

People should start asking why that is. BannonsLiver Oct 2022 #91

The polls were always going to tighten. rogue emissary Oct 2022 #25

I suppose this is another dig at Fetterman. Funny how it is demanded that we have multiple Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #36

+100 Absolutely bronxiteforever Oct 2022 #38

Thank you Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #66

And the other Cook Political report that uprated PA and MI Gov races was a dig at whom? brooklynite Oct 2022 #47

You don't like Fetterman...there is so much good news and yet here we are with a Cook Report... Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #51

I want Fetterman to win because I want Democrats to win. Its that simple. brooklynite Oct 2022 #55

It is a dig...and I think Cook is wrong. But in any case Fetterman is up by 5 in all legit polls- Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #60

So you're saying COOK wants to bias the outcome of the election? brooklynite Oct 2022 #67

Of course not...but no offense intended, like you, he views this as a normal year with a normal Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #68

So you think I WANT a Democratic nominee to lose? brooklynite Oct 2022 #72

No I do not. I just think you are human and you see things that confirm you negative opinion of Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #75

I didn't say I agreed with Cook's evaluation. brooklynite Oct 2022 #78

It would be good to include Cook's definitions Deminpenn Oct 2022 #90

BTW: Will you be critiquing the reasons for THIS post? brooklynite Oct 2022 #80

It's a critique of any politician that refuses to debate. rogue emissary Oct 2022 #58

Debates won't help. PA knows Fetterman...there were plenty of debates when he became Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #61

Sure. If they know him so well. Why has Fetterman lead continued to shrink? rogue emissary Oct 2022 #63

Sorry to disappoint you, he has been leading the entire time and continues to lead. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #69

In my post where did I say he was behind Oz? rogue emissary Oct 2022 #74

Apparently you can't point out a tightening of the election without wanting it to happen... brooklynite Oct 2022 #82

No, they just don't believe the tightening Just_Vote_Dem Oct 2022 #84

Who have I bullied and how? brooklynite Oct 2022 #85

Sealioning Just_Vote_Dem Oct 2022 #86

And where did I do that? brooklynite Oct 2022 #87

.... Just_Vote_Dem Oct 2022 #88

Fetterman said he'd stick to the debate schedule that's been the norm for years in PA, is all Sugarcoated Oct 2022 #40

We'll see in November but I was referring to the primary debates. rogue emissary Oct 2022 #59

OK he attended primary debates. And of course they mostly devolved into 'you pointed a gun Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #70

Cook political is probably the best pollster..but none of them have been very accurate over the last PortTack Oct 2022 #41

New York 19 elected a Democrat...no right movement there. Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #46

Edited my post meant to say it isn't in the direction of the right...sorry. PortTack Oct 2022 #53

Cook isn't a pollster. brooklynite Oct 2022 #56

Got it ..yes I know. wrong terminology on my part PortTack Oct 2022 #81

More to the point, they charge very large fees (currently $350/year) for their analysis.... brooklynite Oct 2022 #83

In forecasting speak, a 5 pt lead is considered a "toss up" Deminpenn Oct 2022 #42

Oz has never polled above edhopper Oct 2022 #44

That should be a reflection of republican enthusiasm, which should favor Democrats JohnSJ Oct 2022 #50

Let's hope edhopper Oct 2022 #52

Do we think that there will be a lot of ticket splitters? Mad_Machine76 Oct 2022 #54

No, those that vote for Oz will vote Mastriano...and those who vote for Shapiro will vote Fetterman Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #71

Yes but...polling has consistently shown a higher vote for Shapiro than for Fetterman. brooklynite Oct 2022 #73

That is not true from the polls I saw a few months back... DemocraticPatriot Oct 2022 #76

Nope, it hasn't. The polls have shown both ahead by wide margins and both somewhat close... Demsrule86 Oct 2022 #77

The last 7 PA-GOV polls had Shapiro up 10-15; The last 7 PA-SEN polls had Fetterman up 2-7. brooklynite Oct 2022 #79

Don't care. ColinC Oct 2022 #89