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ancianita

(43,307 posts)

26. She is correct.

Tue Nov 1, 2022, 12:30 PM

Nov 2022

538 argues that its 'generic polling' gives it a predictive edge while disregarding that turnout can always upend polling predictions. I knew when I read its own polling that I was reading 538's corporate hype.

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"... basically we can't trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer... " [View all] Nevilledog Nov 2022 OP

We'll find out next Tuesday iemanja Nov 2022 #1

Don't worry, be hopeful Wibly Nov 2022 #27

2 possible reasons why GOP wants to look ahead - so they can call stolen election and get recounts certainot Nov 2022 #72

In Flori-duh SayItLoud Nov 2022 #29

florid is a talk radio state with about 30 exLimbaugh stations and prob that many again RW without L certainot Nov 2022 #73

Polls aren't an exact science Dorian Gray Nov 2022 #80

Oh but I've been scolded right here on DU for just that!! LakeArenal Nov 2022 #2

Duers love polls that show Democrats ahead iemanja Nov 2022 #4

Republican polls like Trafalgar, Wick, Insider Advantage are slanted and they are cheap and plentifu Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #8

And 538 says Insider Advantage is one of the most unreliable polls iemanja Nov 2022 #10

Well, when 538 blew the 2016 election in such a spectacular fashion, Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #40

It simply averages polls. That's it. iemanja Nov 2022 #42

Again, 538 is not a pollster iemanja Nov 2022 #48

How did they blow it? sarisataka Nov 2022 #49

As a poker player, I can confirm this happens. n/t OnlinePoker Nov 2022 #58

An 80% chance is 4 in 5. It's a huge surprise to lose with those odds. AllTooEasy Nov 2022 #61

A 1 in 5 chance isn't THAT bad ITAL Nov 2022 #63

Not to anyone who was willing sarisataka Nov 2022 #71

Me too! AllTooEasy Nov 2022 #79

I'm with you. flying_wahini Nov 2022 #56

That 79 per cent chance was in June 2016, long before the election. What did they say Celerity Nov 2022 #64

Okay . . . It went down to 71 percent for HRC on the day of Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #77

Their final prediction had it 71/28. TwilightZone Nov 2022 #78

I don't get it. Baggies Nov 2022 #22

You are exactly right!!!! Is the poll bad?, GO immediately to Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2022 #47

Have RealClearPolitics or 538 responded to this yet? hlthe2b Nov 2022 #3

The issue is almost all polls RCP reflect right wing polls so the numbers are off. Also, Roe is Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #7

How is Roe being ignored? iemanja Nov 2022 #11

Maybe frame the questions to reflect that? I showed that polls taken by niyad Nov 2022 #19

538 doesn't do polls iemanja Nov 2022 #44

After 2016 I don't trust any poll. Burned once never again. bronxiteforever Nov 2022 #23

Traitor Tot only won by 88K votes over three states thanks to Vlad. OMGWTF Nov 2022 #33

Yeah, that's a good point iemanja Nov 2022 #46

I agree with your point that good or bad news shouldn't matter bronxiteforever Nov 2022 #52

Yep, I agree. iemanja Nov 2022 #53

Because none calculate the electoral college into their predictions. jaxexpat Nov 2022 #54

last time I looked 538 indicates who funds the polls. progressoid Nov 2022 #25

Dave Wasserman (Cook Political) may have - indirectly FBaggins Nov 2022 #75

Well, seems to me he is acknowledging it as a real issue... hlthe2b Nov 2022 #76

NS calls it BS. "I've never seen so much hopium smoked before" FBaggins Nov 2022 #81

The problem is the media is obsessed with polls. Raven123 Nov 2022 #5

Polls are not credible anymore. 90% don't answer unknown numbers. Meadowoak Nov 2022 #59

I agree with you. The media just can't figure it out Raven123 Nov 2022 #65

The media couldn't care less, it's all about ratings. Meadowoak Nov 2022 #66

I stopped paying attention to polls years ago. BlueIdaho Nov 2022 #6

Polls are used for propaganda. gab13by13 Nov 2022 #9

POLLS ARE DEAD budkin Nov 2022 #12

any longer? we haven't been able to trust them for a decade or more..... getagrip_already Nov 2022 #13

They need to fix those polls sarisataka Nov 2022 #14

I didn't believe the polls in 2020 either DestinyIsles Nov 2022 #17

Perhaps for you sarisataka Nov 2022 #20

We all know how polls are conducted - by supposedly random phone calls FakeNoose Nov 2022 #15

It's mostly junk polls in the averages now DestinyIsles Nov 2022 #16

"ROEVEMBER. " THAT IS IT, THAT IS ALL!!!! Stuart G Nov 2022 #18

ROE VEMBER!!!! is certainly one serious, indicative factor. niyad Nov 2022 #21

I saw this last night. Just confirmed what I've been saying since Roe was overturned. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #24

She is correct. ancianita Nov 2022 #26

I saw a couple political analysts discussing this on Twitter a couple days ago. CaptainTruth Nov 2022 #28

It can suppress turnout, but I think it's to support "rigged election" claims. Nevilledog Nov 2022 #35

That's my belief also Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2022 #68

The polls mostly show several close races within the margin of error. Tomconroy Nov 2022 #30

Yep Sympthsical Nov 2022 #69

Thom Hartmann was just saying this is laying the groundwork for the Rethugs to claim fraud. OMGWTF Nov 2022 #31

Exactly! Jade Fox Nov 2022 #37

I gave up paying any attention to them years ago. Katinfl Nov 2022 #32

ReidOut left off "we hope" FBaggins Nov 2022 #34

Yup, been feeling that way for awhile now. VOTE. Joinfortmill Nov 2022 #36

They are losing credibility kevink077 Nov 2022 #38

Someone years ago pointed out that 538 had a "good record" of predicting winners ONLY Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #39

Why is it no one remembers 538's 2016 Hillary's whopper win? 4139 Nov 2022 #51

EXACTLY! Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #60

I can't read or hear about polls anymore. Too God damn frustrating. Pepsidog Nov 2022 #41

Polls are as outdated as the white pages in an actual outdated phone book AZLD4Candidate Nov 2022 #43

and even many seniors are dumping their landlines pstokely Nov 2022 #50

I said elsewhere we are experiencing the biggest gaslighting and voter suppression operation Efilroft Sul Nov 2022 #45

A good summary by Jennifer Rubin related to this. liberalgunwilltravel Nov 2022 #55

Just note how far off the polls were in the special elections that have been held lees1975 Nov 2022 #57

Early vote data is probably as reliable as polls tbh ColinC Nov 2022 #62

Typical Republican/rightwing play: accuse polls of a liberal bias and then establish their own Martin68 Nov 2022 #67

When Democrats vote we win. SalamanderSleeps Nov 2022 #70

Watch the campaign, and not the polls forthemiddle Nov 2022 #74