General Discussion

ColinC

(11,098 posts)

62. Early vote data is probably as reliable as polls tbh

Tue Nov 1, 2022, 02:20 PM

Nov 2022

In predicting what will happen -With few exceptions. The reality is we need to be patient and vigilant. If you want to win, knock on doors or volunteer in whatever way you can. If you want to just want to know what is going to happen, you gotta wait till election night… just one more week!

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"... basically we can't trust the data on RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight any longer... " [View all] Nevilledog Nov 2022 OP

We'll find out next Tuesday iemanja Nov 2022 #1

Don't worry, be hopeful Wibly Nov 2022 #27

2 possible reasons why GOP wants to look ahead - so they can call stolen election and get recounts certainot Nov 2022 #72

In Flori-duh SayItLoud Nov 2022 #29

florid is a talk radio state with about 30 exLimbaugh stations and prob that many again RW without L certainot Nov 2022 #73

Polls aren't an exact science Dorian Gray Nov 2022 #80

Oh but I've been scolded right here on DU for just that!! LakeArenal Nov 2022 #2

Duers love polls that show Democrats ahead iemanja Nov 2022 #4

Republican polls like Trafalgar, Wick, Insider Advantage are slanted and they are cheap and plentifu Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #8

And 538 says Insider Advantage is one of the most unreliable polls iemanja Nov 2022 #10

Well, when 538 blew the 2016 election in such a spectacular fashion, Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #40

It simply averages polls. That's it. iemanja Nov 2022 #42

Again, 538 is not a pollster iemanja Nov 2022 #48

How did they blow it? sarisataka Nov 2022 #49

As a poker player, I can confirm this happens. n/t OnlinePoker Nov 2022 #58

An 80% chance is 4 in 5. It's a huge surprise to lose with those odds. AllTooEasy Nov 2022 #61

A 1 in 5 chance isn't THAT bad ITAL Nov 2022 #63

Not to anyone who was willing sarisataka Nov 2022 #71

Me too! AllTooEasy Nov 2022 #79

I'm with you. flying_wahini Nov 2022 #56

That 79 per cent chance was in June 2016, long before the election. What did they say Celerity Nov 2022 #64

Okay . . . It went down to 71 percent for HRC on the day of Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #77

Their final prediction had it 71/28. TwilightZone Nov 2022 #78

I don't get it. Baggies Nov 2022 #22

You are exactly right!!!! Is the poll bad?, GO immediately to Laura PourMeADrink Nov 2022 #47

Have RealClearPolitics or 538 responded to this yet? hlthe2b Nov 2022 #3

The issue is almost all polls RCP reflect right wing polls so the numbers are off. Also, Roe is Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #7

How is Roe being ignored? iemanja Nov 2022 #11

Maybe frame the questions to reflect that? I showed that polls taken by niyad Nov 2022 #19

538 doesn't do polls iemanja Nov 2022 #44

After 2016 I don't trust any poll. Burned once never again. bronxiteforever Nov 2022 #23

Traitor Tot only won by 88K votes over three states thanks to Vlad. OMGWTF Nov 2022 #33

Yeah, that's a good point iemanja Nov 2022 #46

I agree with your point that good or bad news shouldn't matter bronxiteforever Nov 2022 #52

Yep, I agree. iemanja Nov 2022 #53

Because none calculate the electoral college into their predictions. jaxexpat Nov 2022 #54

last time I looked 538 indicates who funds the polls. progressoid Nov 2022 #25

Dave Wasserman (Cook Political) may have - indirectly FBaggins Nov 2022 #75

Well, seems to me he is acknowledging it as a real issue... hlthe2b Nov 2022 #76

NS calls it BS. "I've never seen so much hopium smoked before" FBaggins Nov 2022 #81

The problem is the media is obsessed with polls. Raven123 Nov 2022 #5

Polls are not credible anymore. 90% don't answer unknown numbers. Meadowoak Nov 2022 #59

I agree with you. The media just can't figure it out Raven123 Nov 2022 #65

The media couldn't care less, it's all about ratings. Meadowoak Nov 2022 #66

I stopped paying attention to polls years ago. BlueIdaho Nov 2022 #6

Polls are used for propaganda. gab13by13 Nov 2022 #9

POLLS ARE DEAD budkin Nov 2022 #12

any longer? we haven't been able to trust them for a decade or more..... getagrip_already Nov 2022 #13

They need to fix those polls sarisataka Nov 2022 #14

I didn't believe the polls in 2020 either DestinyIsles Nov 2022 #17

Perhaps for you sarisataka Nov 2022 #20

We all know how polls are conducted - by supposedly random phone calls FakeNoose Nov 2022 #15

It's mostly junk polls in the averages now DestinyIsles Nov 2022 #16

"ROEVEMBER. " THAT IS IT, THAT IS ALL!!!! Stuart G Nov 2022 #18

ROE VEMBER!!!! is certainly one serious, indicative factor. niyad Nov 2022 #21

I saw this last night. Just confirmed what I've been saying since Roe was overturned. onecaliberal Nov 2022 #24

She is correct. ancianita Nov 2022 #26

I saw a couple political analysts discussing this on Twitter a couple days ago. CaptainTruth Nov 2022 #28

It can suppress turnout, but I think it's to support "rigged election" claims. Nevilledog Nov 2022 #35

That's my belief also Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Nov 2022 #68

The polls mostly show several close races within the margin of error. Tomconroy Nov 2022 #30

Yep Sympthsical Nov 2022 #69

Thom Hartmann was just saying this is laying the groundwork for the Rethugs to claim fraud. OMGWTF Nov 2022 #31

Exactly! Jade Fox Nov 2022 #37

I gave up paying any attention to them years ago. Katinfl Nov 2022 #32

ReidOut left off "we hope" FBaggins Nov 2022 #34

Yup, been feeling that way for awhile now. VOTE. Joinfortmill Nov 2022 #36

They are losing credibility kevink077 Nov 2022 #38

Someone years ago pointed out that 538 had a "good record" of predicting winners ONLY Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #39

Why is it no one remembers 538's 2016 Hillary's whopper win? 4139 Nov 2022 #51

EXACTLY! Mr.Mystery Nov 2022 #60

I can't read or hear about polls anymore. Too God damn frustrating. Pepsidog Nov 2022 #41

Polls are as outdated as the white pages in an actual outdated phone book AZLD4Candidate Nov 2022 #43

and even many seniors are dumping their landlines pstokely Nov 2022 #50

I said elsewhere we are experiencing the biggest gaslighting and voter suppression operation Efilroft Sul Nov 2022 #45

A good summary by Jennifer Rubin related to this. liberalgunwilltravel Nov 2022 #55

Just note how far off the polls were in the special elections that have been held lees1975 Nov 2022 #57

Early vote data is probably as reliable as polls tbh ColinC Nov 2022 #62

Typical Republican/rightwing play: accuse polls of a liberal bias and then establish their own Martin68 Nov 2022 #67

When Democrats vote we win. SalamanderSleeps Nov 2022 #70

Watch the campaign, and not the polls forthemiddle Nov 2022 #74