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Polybius

(21,990 posts)

22. Not by nearly that much

Reply to Johnny2X2X (Reply #16)

Thu Nov 10, 2022, 01:12 PM

Nov 2022

Of all the counties left, only one favors her and that's Clark County. They are 88% already in, so that means that there are 73,011 votes in that county left. It's light Blue. Of the 88% so far in in that county, she's up just 5%.

So if that trend holds, she'll be getting 52.5% of the votes. That would be 38,331 for her, and 34,680 for him. That's a pickup of 3,651 votes for her. Plus, there are a few remaining Red counties left. I don't see how she wins, unless the experts have different data than the NYT is showing. scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

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Highlight:

Nevada Senate Election Updated at 83% reporting 436,854 - 421,042 n/m [View all] Donkees Nov 2022 OP

? we can do it Nov 2022 #1

I know, right?! yardwork Nov 2022 #2

Laxalt now leads by 15k instead of 22k now. ColinC Nov 2022 #3

For those who would appreciate an actual link to the Nevada Secretary of State's office: NBachers Nov 2022 #4

That hasn't been updated Donkees Nov 2022 #6

Many readers here in GD don't know all these details. yardwork Nov 2022 #12

The Nevada mail-in votes are *still* being counted and the election results are being 'updated' Donkees Nov 2022 #15

Ralston says CCM should overtake Laxalt Abnredleg Nov 2022 #5

Thank you! yardwork Nov 2022 #13

FYI, Ralston thinks CCM should win if the voters broke the same way as they did yesterday. Claustrum Nov 2022 #7

It has to be 60-35, not 60-30 kansasobama Nov 2022 #9

That clearly wasn't what Ralston said at 1:45am when that post was posted. Claustrum Nov 2022 #14

He was very uncomfortable last night on MSNBC kansasobama Nov 2022 #18

No that is Ralston...if he thought she would lose. He would say so. He is the authority and Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #21

He looked fine and better today...we are going to win. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #24

Ralston has been up and down for the last 24 hours kansasobama Nov 2022 #8

Sadly, You Are Absolutely Correct SoCalDavidS Nov 2022 #10

+1 SunImp Nov 2022 #20

I just heard him this afternoon and the vote is breaking in our favor and he looked just fine. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #25

1hour ago a batch of 20,607 votes was reported, Cortez Masto received 5,205 more votes than Laxalt Donkees Nov 2022 #11

Yeah Johnny2X2X Nov 2022 #16

Not by nearly that much Polybius Nov 2022 #22

Mail in ballots Johnny2X2X Nov 2022 #23

Wrong inthewind21 Nov 2022 #27

Theres 70 k more ballots from the same batch of mail in ballots... jcgoldie Nov 2022 #28

Thanks but lead seems to be the same as last night kansasobama Nov 2022 #17

I think you are correct, it appears that's the batch from last night. ffr Nov 2022 #19

Thanks Donkees...we are going to get this one...the votes are in Democratic areas. Demsrule86 Nov 2022 #26