Chuck Todd suggests "Democrats can't win if they're running against normal Republicans" :)

[patphil]

43. And just what is a "normal republican"?

A traditional normal republican isn't far enough to the right of center to win a republican only primary. The new mainstream republican would never tolerate a traditional "normal republican".
It therefore suffices to say that the republican candidates in 2022 were the new normal for the republican party, and they didn't fare all that well against Democrats.
It took some serious gerrymandering in several states to engineer what still is not established as a majority in the House.
It took some serious attempts at voter suppression in several states to produce an almost certain loss of only one republican seat in the Senate.
Considering what usually happens in a midterm election, I'd say Democrats showed they can win in an election against what now passes for a normal republican.