The big polling shift the final few weeks wasn't real

[Abolishinist]

41. This, for example.

Then there’s how the Republicans specifically focused on commissioning “fake” polls showing Hochul and Zeldin TIED. Hochul won by seven. That race was never competitive. She was never in trouble. But that false narrative presumably drove right wingers to the polls.

Presumably? Based on what? How many are there of those who presumably were driven to the polls, i.e. they would NOT have voted otherwise. After all, she still won by seven. Perhaps a survey is needed to see if this was a factor.

As far as "fake" polls are concerned, the Trafalgar Group, for example, was one of the few to accurately call the 2016 presidential race, yet in 2022 they sucked big time across the board. It could be entirely attributed to their methodology, which appears to be quite different than most, working then but completely out of date six years later.

And on a personal level I don’t get the “my candidate is behind in the polls so I’m not going to vote” thing. I see voting as my civic duty, so I always vote. Beyond that, and partly because I’m in California, besides voting for Governor and Senator and Representative this time around there were 27 other items on the ballot, not including another 16 that were rather frivolous. So there's always a reason to show up.