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mainer

(12,520 posts)

30. Speaking with my upstate NY family, bail reform did it

Reply to USAFRetired_Liberal (Original post)

Wed Nov 23, 2022, 05:39 PM

Nov 2022

They say the rising crime rates and the inability to lock up repeat offenders pissed them off so they went with the GOP. The crime button helped the GOP win.

I don’t know how accurate their statements about NY and bail reform are, I’m just telling you what I’m hearing. The mass shoplifting and no jail time is getting people mad.

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California and New York [View all] USAFRetired_Liberal Nov 2022 OP

This is one of the big reasons why the republic won't survive. roamer65 Nov 2022 #1

This is exactly what I have been predicting for a long time. jg10003 Nov 2022 #6

I steadfastly believe NY and New England would quickly become Canadian provinces. roamer65 Nov 2022 #10

the point is that the union will be dissolved. What happens jg10003 Nov 2022 #11

Yup. It's going to happen. roamer65 Nov 2022 #13

I don't think so Cosmocat Nov 2022 #59

The military would split. roamer65 Nov 2022 #62

Leadership is overwhelmingly white Cosmocat Nov 2022 #81

Michigan is the most Canadian state in the US marmar Nov 2022 #39

Very true. roamer65 Nov 2022 #42

If there is an R POTUS and Cali tries to break they will 100% Cosmocat Nov 2022 #57

"A pro-independence referendum will pass and California will declare itself an independent nation." Iggo Nov 2022 #67

So true. We outnumber repubs but always seem to get outflanked by... brush Nov 2022 #2

California may have an independent redistricting commission... BlueCheeseAgain Nov 2022 #3

It worked that way in MI as well. roamer65 Nov 2022 #5

That CA commission is only 1/3 Democrats, and totally screwed Katie Porter. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #7

Rather misleading, as Katrie Porter did not represent CA-47 prior to running for the newly drawn Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #12

WTF is "misleading"? Katie Porter did NOT move, her district boundaries did. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #14

Yes, the district lines moved. But you showed a map for a district that Katie Porter Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #15

The map shows how CA 47 changed. What is so natural about only having rich beach towns...and Irvine? SunSeeker Nov 2022 #16

Again, Porter was not the Representative for CA-47. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #17

There is nothing natural about concentrating the rich white Republican vote. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #18

Wrong. The stated aim is to identify Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #19

Wrong. If that was so, why not keep Seal Beach with Long Beach, like it used to be? SunSeeker Nov 2022 #20

IMS the commision, which is supposed to act in a non-partisan fashion, is Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #22

What fucking "common interest" does Irvine have with Seal Beach?? SunSeeker Nov 2022 #23

I simply disagree. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #24

You refuse to say what that "common interest" or "fit" is. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #25

It wasn't a pro-Republican majority on the commission. That's false. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #27

Only 5 of the 14 members are Dems. That is a fucking pro-Republican majority. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #29

9 of the 14 members are not Republicans. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #31

No, 9 of 14 are not Dems. The "independents" on the Commission are Republican lite. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #32

Do you seriously not know what links Laguna Woods and Seal Beach? Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #34

I asked you why does Seal Beach form a "very natural district" with Irvine, as you claim. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #35

I asked you what Laguna Woods and Seal Beach had in common Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #45

This message was self-deleted by its author SunSeeker Nov 2022 #47

OFFS, you're the one dodging questions. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #48

Seal Beach breaks slightly Democratic. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #51

Wrong. Seal Beach voted in Republican Michelle Steel as its House Representative in 2020. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #55

You conflated the voting of the district at large with that of Seal Beach. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #65

As I pointed out to you, with link, Seal Beach R's outnumber D's. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #68

Seal Beach voted for Biden over Trump. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #70

Barely. Trump raised our taxes by gutting the state and local tax deduction. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #72

Biden got a majority in Seal Beach. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #74

"I've never argued that the demographic in this area are not challenging." SunSeeker Nov 2022 #78

What's your problem? Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #79

Yesterday you said "Seal Beach breaks slightly Democratic." SunSeeker Nov 2022 #87

Which is correct. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #90

Nope, you never said why Irvine and Seal Beach have "common interests." SunSeeker Nov 2022 #95

I said Irvine is an integral part of northern coastal Orange County, which is the case. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #96

LOL. Irvine is not considered part of northern coastal OC, let alone an "integral" part. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #99

Seal Beach does have much in common with Long Beach. Not denying it for a moment. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #107

Seal Beach and Irvine do not have "economic integration." SunSeeker Nov 2022 #108

You are not posting in good faith. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #110

Disagreeing with you is not "posting in bad faith." SunSeeker Nov 2022 #111

Suggesting I desire for Katie Porter to have a tougher district is a flat out lie. Just A Box Of Rain Nov 2022 #112

You just spent a week trying to defend the commission doing that to her. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #114

Speaking for my own state In It to Win It Nov 2022 #9

When voters are suppressed, it appears the suppressor is getting more votes. Hermit-The-Prog Nov 2022 #26

Couldn't agree more. I've been saying this for a while now. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #4

In CA Zeitghost Nov 2022 #28

Only 23.9% of Californians are registered as Republicans. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #33

Registration is not the same as votes cast Zeitghost Nov 2022 #38

Republicans get more representatives in the House, per Republican voter, than Democratic voters get. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #40

I'm not sure what you're talking about Zeitghost Nov 2022 #41

This is what I'm talking about: SunSeeker Nov 2022 #43

Thats 2016... Zeitghost Nov 2022 #44

California is still counting. Where'd you get your 2022 numbers? SunSeeker Nov 2022 #46

It hasn't gotten worse Zeitghost Nov 2022 #49

So you have no link and you made up the 2022 numbers. Got it. nt SunSeeker Nov 2022 #50

You are more than free to challenge my numbers Zeitghost Nov 2022 #52

The complete numbers for 2022 are not out yet. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #53

It's not made up SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #54

California won't be done counting votes until Dec. 8. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #56

Numbers have been updated SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #60

Nov 16th Zeitghost Nov 2022 #64

Dec 8th SunSeeker Nov 2022 #69

If all remaining CA votes SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #71

We'll see. Projections aren't facts. nt SunSeeker Nov 2022 #73

I'm not talking about orojections SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #75

A handful of votes in CA Zeitghost Nov 2022 #76

It's not a "handful." And you now admit you were stating a projection, not the actual vote total. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #77

That's an awful analogy Zeitghost Nov 2022 #80

We'll see. nt SunSeeker Nov 2022 #82

That's just it Zeitghost Nov 2022 #83

Facts obviously don't matter n/t SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #84

That's your opinion. nt SunSeeker Nov 2022 #85

No Zeitghost Nov 2022 #86

The numbers actually aren't my opiniom SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #88

The Cook's link is not the final total. CA is not the only state with lots of outstanding votes. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #93

Florida is already done SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #98

You're the one who won't accept numerical facts. "80-90% counted" is not fully counted. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #105

Where do you see SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #106

You'll have to do the math. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #109

Unless SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #116

It's 26 House races in NY. And each of those House ballots had the Schumer race on it too. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #119

Well... Zeitghost Dec 2022 #121

If you're that obsessed with this, add it up yourself. SunSeeker Dec 2022 #122

I've counted Zeitghost Dec 2022 #123

Cool story, bro. nt SunSeeker Dec 2022 #124

You've suddenly lost interest? Zeitghost Dec 2022 #125

I can wait for professionals with better access to data, like Brookings, to issue reports. SunSeeker Dec 2022 #126

Lol Zeitghost Dec 2022 #127

California Zeitghost Nov 2022 #63

The GOP can't win fairly. Laffy Kat Nov 2022 #8

The ultimate blame in all of this.... The Grand Illuminist Nov 2022 #21

spot on Cosmocat Nov 2022 #58

Speaking with my upstate NY family, bail reform did it mainer Nov 2022 #30

Bail reform didn't do it. 4 conservative NY judges screwed Democrats in NY. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #36

Just repeating what my independent-voting relatives said mainer Nov 2022 #37

In the NY House Elections: Zeitghost Nov 2022 #89

What link are you getting those numbers from? Reuters still does not have complete NY vote totals. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #91

As I said, I get numbers from various sources to populate my database Zeitghost Nov 2022 #92

LOL So you won't give me your "sources"? SunSeeker Nov 2022 #94

I've already showed you Zeitghost Nov 2022 #97

Truth n/t SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #100

You haven't shown anything. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #104

CNN SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #101

CNN shows only 90% counted in the statewide Schumer race, just like Reuters does. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #115

But we're not talking about SickOfTheOnePct Nov 2022 #117

Schumer's race is a statewide race. It's a shortcut to adding up all the NY House races. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #118

Excellent analysis. Kid Berwyn Nov 2022 #61

Oh yeah, we suck. Iggo Nov 2022 #66

illinois dems did a bit of gerrymandering of their own orleans Nov 2022 #102

I agree 100% and I think in 2024 even with the deck Tribetime Nov 2022 #103

I think you're right. It will be a presidential election year, when there's greater Dem turnout. SunSeeker Nov 2022 #113

I lived in CA Old Crank Nov 2022 #120