General Discussion

Polybius

(21,938 posts)

27. I'll answer

Fri Dec 9, 2022, 02:56 PM

Dec 2022

1) Pretty sure it'll be Biden. He seems to indicate that he'll be running.

2) This is a tough one. If Trump wasn't in any legal trouble, I'd say it would be him. But he may go to jail. So let's divide this into two answers:

2.a) It's Trump, and he picks Lake as his VP. Blake Masters gets the Republican Senate nomination.

2.b) It's DeSantis (Trump either loses or is in jail). Kari Lake gets the Republican Senate nomination.

3) I think that he can increase it, but not significantly.

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2024 Arizona Senate race [View all] Polybius Dec 2022 OP

Gallego will be the nominee grantcart Dec 2022 #1

Does Arizona have a runoff like Georgia? Polybius Dec 2022 #2

No one has a run off like GA grantcart Dec 2022 #3

I think Louisiana does AZSkiffyGeek Dec 2022 #5

Yep. I think that they have a run off next week. It's a legacy racist tactic themaguffin Dec 2022 #17

No run-off AZSkiffyGeek Dec 2022 #4

Backing AZSkiffyGeek, both ChazII Dec 2022 #43

Kelly's ads were all Republican leaders and businessmen... AZSkiffyGeek Dec 2022 #45

True, n/t ChazII Dec 2022 #46

No run off. Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #21

I don't think he can win statewide. Arizona is still to reddish purple. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #11

Depends on 3 things grantcart Dec 2022 #16

I'll answer Polybius Dec 2022 #27

Agree with all points grantcart Dec 2022 #37

IMO that figure is much too high for republicans... brush Dec 2022 #6

I dropped it to 42% bare minimum in another post Polybius Dec 2022 #8

Arizonans Just Voted For Democrats Across THe Board Me. Dec 2022 #7

Yup, Arizona has gone from Purple to Light Blue Polybius Dec 2022 #10

No it hasn't. We barely won in most cases and we had January 6 and Roe...Sinema has done this Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #14

That was sorta the purpose of my OP (her running Third Party will be a huge issue) Polybius Dec 2022 #15

Well, I agree with you. We may have to keep her. Let her run on the Democratic ticket as an Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #18

We agree more than we disagree, hehe Polybius Dec 2022 #20

I see that and I believe people don't consider political reality in many cases. Everything is Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #31

Then The Major Netweorks Like CNN Need To Change Their Meme Me. Dec 2022 #39

No they did not. former9thward Dec 2022 #13

They voted against radical nut jobs. If they nominate Jeff Flake types we lose. grantcart Dec 2022 #19

In non-three way races Just A Box Of Rain Dec 2022 #26

We will have to go with Sinema or she will run third party and we will lose the seat and we can't Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #9

Do you think there's another option? Polybius Dec 2022 #12

No, a third party candidate will doom us. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #22

this is just a huge assumption based on no evidence jcgoldie Dec 2022 #24

Did you see how close the Arizona races were? What do you think siphoning off even a few votes. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #29

the assumption you are making... jcgoldie Dec 2022 #32

They are mostly independents that lean Republican. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #34

well they didnt this year jcgoldie Dec 2022 #36

They are mostly independents that lean Republican. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #35

how many registered Democrats are there vs Republicans in AZ? jcgoldie Dec 2022 #23

I want to say the percentages are around... AZSkiffyGeek Dec 2022 #25

But the independents lean right grantcart Dec 2022 #38

They don't vote for crazy R though AZSkiffyGeek Dec 2022 #40

Some do but a plurality doesn't. grantcart Dec 2022 #41

The reason we win in Arizona is Republicans vote for us too if they don't, we will lose. Demsrule86 Dec 2022 #30

no they dont. jcgoldie Dec 2022 #33

You are correct on the numbers but the endorsement of grantcart Dec 2022 #42

3 Person Race Likely R. 2 Person Race Lean D or Lean I LonePirate Dec 2022 #28

Let's keep working like the election is in a month. Sky Jewels Dec 2022 #44