Overheard a Republican in my local Subway today

[Beautiful Disaster]

61. Trump in 2020 did as well in the Detroit region as Romney.

Maybe just a smidgen better and yet lost Michigan by much less than Romney. Why do you think that is? Here's a hint: Romney didn't do nearly as well in rural counties as Trump.

Places like Monroe County,which is considered mostly rural.

In 2012, Obama won Monroe County 50-49. In 2020, Trump won it 60-38.

In 2016, he won it 58-36.

In a four year span, the Democrats lost 14 points off their 2012 total and the Republicans gained nine points for a swing of 23 points.

There's dozens of examples like this throughout Michigan and Pennsylvania. Counties Obama either won very narrowly or lost very narrowly, rural counties outside the major metros, that Hillary and Biden lost by massive margins.

In fact, in Washtenaw, home to Ann Arbor, Biden actually did better than Obama in 2012. He won that county 72-26. In 2012, Obama won it over Romney 67-31.

Despite that, Obama did nearly seven points better than Biden statewide. Why? Because again, Trump decimated Biden in all those rural counties.

That's what cost Hillary the state in 2016 (she too did better than Obama in Washtenaw). Trump doesn't win Michigan in 2016 and it's not close in 2020 if he pulls in rural numbers like Romney did in 2012. That's a reality. Trump's rural support is what made all the difference, not his urban support or Republicans would be winning these states in other elections and that's just not happening.

So, yes, it's a rural issue.