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[Model35mech]

19. It seems right on time meteorlogically to me

Avg Mar temps in Donetsk are in the 40's. Pretty much like northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.

By mid-March things in Donetsk will turn into serious MUD TIME. No one will be able to move heavy equipment off-road. That presents the attacker with the dilemma of travelling down paved roads. Roads the Ukrainians very well know. Ambushes will follow, again, just like last year.

The inclusion of rather greater air-assets would be a correction from last year's plan. But combined arms assaults with mostly green troops? I don't know how that will go. And, of course, Ukranians are experienced with and still have manpads. Helicopter losses could be heavy for Russia, and jets are very expensive to lose.