If you try to be optimistic Trump will be indicted and convicted, when is the soonest you think... [View all]

[Silent3]

...he'd be behind "bars" -- by which I mean in custody of some sort, even if it's just house arrest.

I still have a hard time at my most optimistic (which isn't very) thinking that would happen in much less than two years.

Why?

I think the Georgia case is what's closest to fruition, and even then, I think the legal profession's idea of indictments coming "soon" isn't what I'd call "soon". I'd be shocked (pleased, but shocked) if "soon" was a month from now. Probably more like 3-6 months from now, since yet another grand jury has to weigh in.

Once an indictment is issued, how long until a trial? My admittedly non-expert opinion is that the powers-that-be will decide Trump would have to be given at least six months to prepare for trial. Trump will then fuck around and get a few more months of delays.

Once a trial begins? What do you think? 3-6 months for that?

Once a conviction is reached? Sentencing could and should be fast, but look at how long Steve Bannon's sentencing was delayed after his conviction on contempt-of-Congress charges. So, another 3-6 months?

Once sentenced, how long would Trump be given to report to "jail" (whether that be real jail or something much cushier). Bannon is still loose doing podcasts, isn't he? Left free while he appeals, and he was given something like four months to show up (as I recall) even if he didn't appeal.

So, with a generous allowance for when Trump turns himself in, and being left free until appeals all the way up to the SCOTUS run their course? How many more months will that take?

Hard to imagine he will be in jail before November 2024, that's for sure.