Now that Sweden is formally in NATO.....

[Emrys]

21. Putin's had his bluff called numerous times during his war on Ukraine.

There's no reason to think this would be any different.

What on earth does the " (rightly)" there mean? It seems to be doing a lot of heavy lifting beyond its capabilities.

Ukraine only presents an "existential" threat currently since Putin fucked up his invasion and the aftermath to the extent that his hold on internal power is wavering, and if you listen to any of his and his media's public pronouncements since the 2002 invasion, he's hell-bent on outright imperialism and genocide of Ukraine - and other Eastern European countries if he's not stopped decisively.

There's no reason to think that Ukraine would have any appetite to attack or invade Russia once it withdraws from Ukrainian territory. It'll have quite enough on its hands tidying up the mess Putin's troops and the process of repelling them will leave. It certainly wouldn't drag the rest of NATO into such an adventure if and when it gains membership, and other members would resist it decisively anyway.

What would be suicidal is to leave Russia with the idea that it can invade Ukraine again - or any other of its neighbours - with impunity. NATO membership will take that off the table.