CBS News is reporting that Ukraine forces have broken through and are approaching Tokmak

[Emrys]

10. Very conceivable.

We all expect parties in a conflict to flatter their forces' performance and prospects, but the the Russians are known to foster that in a highly organized way in a baroque version of denial.

Anyone who tries to second-guess the Ukrainian military leadership and who thinks they could run the conflict better is no doubt playing their part, even if they don't realize it. Things tend to happen slowly, then all at once. That's been a pattern for the last couple of years from the Ukrainian side, and will no doubt continue.

Meanwhile, Moscow medical facilities are running seriously short of blood because of the horrendous injuries inflicted on their troops by the cluster munitions some in the West decried when they were deployed, and that's just among the lucky few who didn't die where they fell and made it back to comparative civilization. That's just one symptom that the conflict is by no means going Russia's way.