Chris Hayes pointed out something that has not really been digested.

[Azathoth]

20. There is going to be a very serious push to put him in prison

For multiple reasons: the sheer number of crimes he's been charged with across multiple jurisdictions; the fact prosecutors would not have charged him without overwhelming evidence of guilt; the fact prosecutors are taking a massive professional and personal risk by doing their jobs and thus opening themselves up to the wrath of Trump's cult, both inside and outside of government, so they will want to see a meaningful outcome from their personal sacrifice; and the fact that Trump himself admits nothing short of a jail cell is going to stop him from continuing to foment insurrection and attacking the foundations of our democracy.

The folks who predict probation or house arrest are done deals aren't reading the tea leaves correctly.