"There's one thing these polls are good for, and that is making sure that nobody in the Biden campaign..."

[Fiendish Thingy]

7. Denial, or critical thinking? Let's focus on the stakes, not the odds

MacCaskill’s warning is based on accepting polls a year from an election, overweighted for Republicans, as accurate predictions of the sentiment of the electorate next November.

What segment of the electorate is she warning is being ignored? White, uneducated, “economically anxious” boomers who hang out in swing state diners?

Polls showing a 20+ point swing in voter sentiment, especially in subgroups of POC and young voters, towards Trump, should be ignored, especially when compared to actual election results over the past 6-12 months in places like VA, OH, KY and KS.

If the NYT suddenly released a poll showing the majority of voters supported a national ban on abortion with no exceptions, would you believe it?

Remember the flood of flawed, shitty polls in October 2022 predicting a Red Tsunami? The also predicted 20+% swings in voter sentiment towards Republicans. Accepting those polls as accurate, and incorporating them into 538’s prediction model cost Nate Silver his job.

2024 will likely be another close election in the EC, decided by the turnout of POC and Young voters, just as it was in 2020.