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MyNameIsJonas

(744 posts)
12. Yes, you're reporting multiple times about this pending recession.
Mon Nov 20, 2023, 11:49 AM
Nov 2023

I think last time your wife told you she had heard 70% chance within the next few months or something.

Again: not reliable.

Even more so a year out from an election. Polls are not fake. They're not made up. But they're not something anyone should particularly worry about this far from an election and really only seem to be out there at this stage to feed a narrative.

Kinda like all those reminders over the last 13 months or so that we're literally entering a recession any day now.

Again: not fake but not reliable claims, either. Polls should not be taken as anything but extreme hypotheticals that can be easily manipulated solely because voters aren't engaged in presidential politics at this stage (at least at the level we'll see in six months) and can get away with saying a lot. That doesn't get into how difficult it's becoming to actually create LV models that are accurate and predictive of what the actual electorate will look like in 12 months. Especially since the election isn't today and never will be today so you can't create the same conditions that happen in the lead up to an actual election. No amount of polling is going to do that.

So, yes, unreliable.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Not fake but maybe as reliable as that recession you kept saying was almost certain to happen. MyNameIsJonas Nov 2023 #1
I din't say a recession was coming; I reported what my financial planner said. brooklynite Nov 2023 #3
Yes, you're reporting multiple times about this pending recession. MyNameIsJonas Nov 2023 #12
Bravo BannonsLiver Nov 2023 #18
Define "hopeful" brooklynite Nov 2023 #21
Polls are one of the main sources of propaganda, gab13by13 Nov 2023 #2
They're not propaganda if the findings are true. brooklynite Nov 2023 #5
McCaskill is one of the last people Dems should take advice from Fiendish Thingy Nov 2023 #4
Translation: "let's ignore anyone who says things we don't agree with" brooklynite Nov 2023 #6
Denial, or critical thinking? Let's focus on the stakes, not the odds Fiendish Thingy Nov 2023 #7
'MacCaskill's warning is based on accepting polls a year from an election" brooklynite Nov 2023 #8
Spelling doesn't alter the point of my post Fiendish Thingy Nov 2023 #9
Who said anything about "moving to the center" or "do a 180"? brooklynite Nov 2023 #11
And how exactly do we address his alleged age and vigor problem? Elessar Zappa Nov 2023 #13
What would you have the Biden campaign do differently? Fiendish Thingy Nov 2023 #14
I agree with her. Don't take anything for granted. shrike3 Nov 2023 #10
Joe Biden is facing a near-historic deficit for an incumbent TheProle Nov 2023 #15
There is a vast difference between "taking any segment of our vote for granted" Fiendish Thingy Nov 2023 #16
If the polls do not model increased turnout for women, Qutzupalotl Nov 2023 #17
Exactly, women are going to worry about what the fuck happens half a world away much less than their own crotch. SoFlaBro Nov 2023 #20
Why would you say all polls are fake? What are you talking about? SoFlaBro Nov 2023 #19
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