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Fiendish Thingy

(23,279 posts)
18. Again, you're asking the wrong question
Mon Dec 18, 2023, 12:34 PM
Dec 2023

The question isn’t “what are the right numbers?”, but “are current polls accurately predicting voter behaviour next November?”

They are clearly not- RFK will not get 20% of the vote, and 15% of likely voters will not be unsure or undecided.

While I think there is no way Trump will win the popular vote (and Biden may even increase his margin over 2020), I think we agree the electoral college will again be won by a narrow margin in a handful of swing states. We probably won’t get a clear picture of how narrow that margin will be until next summer.

So, in the meantime, rather than hand wringing and pearl clutching over every negative poll, the focus should be on clarity and consistency in messaging, and engaging with, listening to, and motivating POC, women and young voters, whose turnout, especially in swing states, will be key to victory.

Recommendations

4 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

"Perhaps someone should tell him the polls are all fake? Or that worrying about polls a year out is meaningless?" Prairie Gates Dec 2023 #1
We hear it on a daily basis. Multiple times a day, in fact. "Biden is going to lose." shrike3 Dec 2023 #9
Yeah Perhaps! I actually think Pres Biden knows Cha Dec 2023 #73
Aren't these numbers typical of first term presidents? Buckeyeblue Dec 2023 #2
Not the 57% disapproval rate Polybius Dec 2023 #23
Reagan had a job approval of 35 percent. shrike3 Dec 2023 #60
Reagan was re-elected in 1984 ITAL Dec 2023 #64
Oops, you're right shrike3 Dec 2023 #74
It's not approval that is killing Biden. It's disapproval. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #88
I don't think you're worried, dear. shrike3 Dec 2023 #89
RayGun had rating's that were close to Bidens won in landslide uponit7771 Dec 2023 #95
No one wants to hear that. shrike3 Dec 2023 #96
Because it's not true, love. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #108
Reagan at the end of 1983 had a higher approval than he did disapproval. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #105
Yes after 96 save Bush 2 uponit7771 Dec 2023 #93
Even inaccurate indicators can still be useful as indicators Shermann Dec 2023 #3
Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos. . . Emile Dec 2023 #4
What are you saying? brooklynite Dec 2023 #6
slant and tone are everything WhiteTara Dec 2023 #66
Yep Emile Dec 2023 #109
The Washington Post made up a false story? Got it. brooklynite Dec 2023 #111
By "sources who spoke on condition of anonymity." Glad you got it! Emile Dec 2023 #112
The Washington Post is one of the most respected newspapers in American History... brooklynite Dec 2023 #114
Could the source be Jeff Bezos? Emile Dec 2023 #116
Why would you assume that? brooklynite Dec 2023 #117
According to the article, Biden said this: everyonematters Dec 2023 #5
nothing conflicting about this report. WhiteTara Dec 2023 #67
childish. everyonematters Dec 2023 #76
are you dissing me? WhiteTara Dec 2023 #77
I apologies. When I post, I try to make statements that will influence people. everyonematters Dec 2023 #82
influence people HERE? WarGamer Dec 2023 #97
ah. well you influenced me. WhiteTara Dec 2023 #99
I don't have a problem with accepting the reality of polls but Elessar Zappa Dec 2023 #7
Do you obsess over them? I don't. brooklynite Dec 2023 #52
I don't but it gets in the general zeitgeist of the public that it's hopeless to support Biden because he has no chance. Elessar Zappa Dec 2023 #70
This is how I see things also. Even good polls right now JI7 Dec 2023 #87
The message is pounded in here daily. "Biden is going to lose." shrike3 Dec 2023 #8
No, the message is: the election is close and Biden has to rebuild his support brooklynite Dec 2023 #12
Are we on the same site? shrike3 Dec 2023 #16
Are there "good news" stories you think aren't getting posted? brooklynite Dec 2023 #57
There are plenty of bad news stories that aren't getting posted. shrike3 Dec 2023 #59
care to share WhiteTara Dec 2023 #68
I wouldn't wait long. shrike3 Dec 2023 #91
I knew who posted it even before I opened the thread. BannonsLiver Dec 2023 #24
Me too! tavernier Dec 2023 #33
Yep. n/t shrike3 Dec 2023 #37
Typical Aepps22 Dec 2023 #40
Don't forget the gleeful, breathless posts predicting a recession BannonsLiver Dec 2023 #47
Define "gleeful" brooklynite Dec 2023 #53
This message was self-deleted by its author Prairie Gates Dec 2023 #63
I don't follow them, the posters in question, that closely. shrike3 Dec 2023 #58
Sometimes I could swear it's 3rdWM's sock puppet. LuvLoogie Dec 2023 #41
lol Rec Cha Dec 2023 #75
Me too. Emile Dec 2023 #94
Call the experts! Need to raise more money for advertising. Kid Berwyn Dec 2023 #10
I have faith in Biden that TlalocW Dec 2023 #11
I hate to sound like a conspiracy theorist, but lees1975 Dec 2023 #13
And you're staying Biden isn't perceptive enough to figure out this "conspiracy"? brooklynite Dec 2023 #14
Again, you're asking the wrong question Fiendish Thingy Dec 2023 #18
Take a look at other accurate measurements of voter turnout and preference. lees1975 Dec 2023 #20
"Democrats have overperformed in virtually every election cycle since 2020" Polybius Dec 2023 #25
Polls rso Dec 2023 #65
Yeah, he was supposed to lose in a blowout Polybius Dec 2023 #71
He increased his support among latino and african american voters yes he over performed his polling in 2020 MistakenLamb Dec 2023 #72
Agree FHRRK Dec 2023 #86
The administration has its own internal polls. TwilightZone Dec 2023 #19
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2023 #22
Welcome to DU unc70 Dec 2023 #35
Nobody said that, Mr./Ms. Low poster shrike3 Dec 2023 #39
Look at the source of this article. lees1975 Dec 2023 #26
"Public opinion does not shift" TwilightZone Dec 2023 #31
... SAID to be lamp_shade Dec 2023 #15
So, if Biden truly believes current polls indicate he will lose in November Fiendish Thingy Dec 2023 #17
I think Biden thinks that he still has time to change things around Polybius Dec 2023 #27
Nowhere did it say that he thinks they indicate he's going to lose. TwilightZone Dec 2023 #32
No, because there's no way anyone else would be a safer bet than Biden Silent3 Dec 2023 #118
Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2023 #21
What if his own polls are telling him he's behind? Polybius Dec 2023 #29
This is a good point. If the story is true, then Biden's own polls/sources must be saying the same thing as supposed Silent Type Dec 2023 #38
That's how I feel. shrike3 Dec 2023 #44
We have you to tell US, at least. shrike3 Dec 2023 #43
They do internal polling though. themaguffin Dec 2023 #28
In my opinion... kentuck Dec 2023 #30
I'm no expert, but wouldn't that be a little late in the game? shrike3 Dec 2023 #46
Yes. A good chunk of the primaries would be over by that point. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #100
Much to your delight, I'm sure. shrike3 Dec 2023 #101
No. I want Joe Biden to be the nominee. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #102
Sure ya do, doll. shrike3 Dec 2023 #103
I do, sweetcheeks. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #104
Before I put you on ignore, I'll give you some advice. shrike3 Dec 2023 #106
Show me where I called Trump vigorous, doll face. MyNameIsJonas Dec 2023 #107
poster appears to be disingenuous about what Pres. Biden thinks bigtree Dec 2023 #34
A right winger I do business with John Shaft Dec 2023 #36
A right-winger said this to you? shrike3 Dec 2023 #48
They mentioned polls John Shaft Dec 2023 #49
What did they say? I'm still not clear. shrike3 Dec 2023 #51
Typical "Dems are in disarray" doomsaying bullshit John Shaft Dec 2023 #54
Polling is getting traction on right-wing sites. shrike3 Dec 2023 #55
Nope. MorbidButterflyTat Dec 2023 #42
Again, wanna bet? FHRRK Dec 2023 #45
Your optimism is refreshing, considering what goes on at this site these days. shrike3 Dec 2023 #50
Meh, I actually am not an optimistic person FHRRK Dec 2023 #84
Deja vu all over again. shrike3 Dec 2023 #85
Biden said to be increasingly happy Sneederbunk Dec 2023 #56
I think Biden's more CURRENT statement... Think. Again. Dec 2023 #61
I'm Sure RobinA Dec 2023 #62
This is pot stirring by the "paper that Jeff bought." SalamanderSleeps Dec 2023 #69
Highest Dow ever! Charging Triceratops Dec 2023 #78
During the Bush Administration, high DOW numbers were denigrated here..... brooklynite Dec 2023 #79
. . . . Emile Dec 2023 #80
the Dow during that time was artificially propped up bigtree Dec 2023 #81
That was a bubble economy like the '80s. Obama and now Biden economies -- not bubble economies. betsuni Dec 2023 #83
The rest of America didn't think so. shrike3 Dec 2023 #90
"said to be" uponit7771 Dec 2023 #92
By "sources who spoke on condition of anonymity." Emile Dec 2023 #98
So you posted this to prove that treestar Dec 2023 #110
Gee, I thought I posted it because it was a topical news story... brooklynite Dec 2023 #115
"Perhaps someone should tell him the polls are all fake? Or that worrying about polls a year out is meaningless?" treestar Dec 2023 #120
He should start putting a little fear in the people of what a fascist dictatorship would be like. Hotler Dec 2023 #113
The media is having a field day with the "polls." I'd love to know the true demographics of those Vinca Dec 2023 #119
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