Biden Has a Michigan Problem

[MyNameIsJonas]

144. There's more than just one bullshit poll.

You're free to bury your head in the sand and pretend everything is okay. I've worked too many campaigns to know when there are major warning signs about support. And ignoring the problem isn't going to magically make it go away.

Fortunately, there is time to get things turned around - but it requires being honest about the situation.

I didn't work with the Biden campaign four years ago (I was focused on a local race) but I knew someone who was pretty high up in the campaign. There were some key moments where the campaign had to pivot.

In late summer of 2020, the campaign realized, due to COVID, they were at a massive disadvantage with their GOTV and voter registration efforts in swing states like Pennsylvania and Florida. The DNC, along with the Biden campaign, decided to forgo in-person, door-to-door voter registration and GOTV efforts. It was the responsible thing to do but politically it hurt them because the Republicans and Trump campaign were actually going door-to-door. It allowed them to register new voters and Republicans in Pennsylvania actually registered more new voters than Democrats.

In October, sensing things narrowing with their internal polling, the party finally allowed door-to-door registration and GOTV campaigning. With how close the race ended up in PA, as well as other swing states, it might have actually saved his butt.

Around this time, at least in September, it also became clear that Trump was benefiting from resuming holding rallies. Those rallies again were used as GOTV efforts but also a way to register new voters. Biden hadn't held any rallies since winning the nomination but the campaign realized they were still needed to beat back the image he was living in his basement and to also aggressively motivate the base.

So the campaign pivoted and started holding in-person rallies (though with drive-in rallies where people attended in their cars).

My point? The campaign saw warning signs and adjusted. They needed to. They realized they were at risk of losing their lead. And with how close these states were, that adjustment likely saved his campaign.

But it takes accepting the reality to do something like that - not rejecting it because it's not positive enough for you.