I'm feeling much more optimistic Biden will win now

[Quixote1818]

61. Most of those are primarily sports betting sites, Predictit is for politics only. Also, You have to look at which party

is expected to win not which person because several other people draw from the main candidates. For example for which party, Predictit has Dems winning the Presidency but has it almost even with Trump as far as Biden vs Trump because guys like Newsom pull a lot from Biden. Unless it's a head to head match-up then you are getting a clouded picture. Also, they are much less likely to be accurate this far out. How they are betting the night before the election is when they are by far the most accurate. Right now they are just showing trends and in the past week Biden / Democratic Party has gained momentum. Probably because Trump did poorly with independents in Iowa and NH and because of Trump calling Haley, Nancy Pelosi.

Sports betting sites are going to be mostly people who vote on sports, dabbling with politics, people who don't really know tried and true political trends and who are not looking deeper into the numbers. They are probably looking only at current poll numbers, which have actually tightened to about even.



https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/6867/Which-party-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election


https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election