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Gen X and white women slid significantly to the RW in 2022 (and that was POST Roe being overturned) compared to previous elections, as did Hispanics of both genders (in both 2020 and 2022 when compared to 2018).
White women went from +2 Dem in 2018 to +8 Rethug in 2020 and then to +11 Rethug in 2022.
Gen X overall voted solidly Rethug in 2022, with the 40 to 49 yo cohort especially sliding hard to the RW compared to previous elections.
Age cohorts in 2022
notice 2 things:
1. My (I had just turned 26yo then and now have turned 27, three months ago) Zillennial (born 1992/93 to 1998) group (in this poll, we are talking the youngest 4 years and 2 months of Millennials and a 'first 10 months of 1997-born' sliver of the very oldest of Gen Zers) voted Dem at a higher rate than the rest of Gen Zers (ages 18 to 24 years old on election day, so most all of Gen Z who were old enough to vote then).
My OP shows this cleavage continuing in certain vectors, and I fear we have perhaps hit peak liberal/peak Dem voting atm with the group born born approximately 1989/1990 to 1999/2000, and more narrowly, the 1992 to 1998 born (ie Zillennials) cohort being that most pronounced peak.
and then:
2. Look at the pretty significant sliding to the Rethugs by the Gen Xers. Gen X voted Rethug in toto by a pretty healthy margin, which worries me for 2024 and beyond.
notice 2 things:
1. My (I had just turned 26yo then and now have turned 27, three months ago) Zillennial (born 1992/93 to 1998) group (in this poll, we are talking the youngest 4 years and 2 months of Millennials and a 'first 10 months of 1997-born' sliver of the very oldest of Gen Zers) voted Dem at a higher rate than the rest of Gen Zers (ages 18 to 24 years old on election day, so most all of Gen Z who were old enough to vote then).
My OP shows this cleavage continuing in certain vectors, and I fear we have perhaps hit peak liberal/peak Dem voting atm with the group born born approximately 1989/1990 to 1999/2000, and more narrowly, the 1992 to 1998 born (ie Zillennials) cohort being that most pronounced peak.
and then:
2. Look at the pretty significant sliding to the Rethugs by the Gen Xers. Gen X voted Rethug in toto by a pretty healthy margin, which worries me for 2024 and beyond.
Age cohorts in 2020
also:
In the 2022 US House national number, Rethugs outvoted Dems by over 3 million total, and that again was POST Roe being overturned.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections
Popular national US House vote
Rethugs 54,506,136
Dems 51,477,313
Rethugs +3,028,823
Popular national US House vote
Rethugs 54,506,136
Dems 51,477,313
Rethugs +3,028,823
Remove CA (capped by the Electoral College in terms of impact for POTUS) and we were outvoted by almost 6 million nationally (5,912,894):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_California
CA-only popular vote for the US House
Dems 6,743,737
Rethugs 3,859,666
Dems +2,884,071
CA-only popular vote for the US House
Dems 6,743,737
Rethugs 3,859,666
Dems +2,884,071
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