Before people overthink the polling discrepancy in NY-3..... [View all]

[brooklynite]

It's important to keep in mind that there was a significant development in the late days of the campaign that shifted votes to Suozzi. A major issue in the campaign was immigration and the border (nb: neither Pilip nor Suozzi ran heavily on reproductive rights). Pilip was running ads about the "border crisis", and Suzzi was running a defensive action on the issue. What changed things was Trump and Johnson spiking the border deal legislation in the last week which damaged Pilip's campaign, and allowed Suozzi to assert his (you may not like this) "reach across the aisle and work together" message.

The issue had all the makings of a political storm. Illegal border crossings reached an all-time high in December, and the arrival of more than 170,000 migrants in New York City has brought the sense of chaos close to home.

Rather than shrink from the issue, though, Mr. Suozzi made the migrant crisis a centerpiece of his campaign. He called for Mr. Biden to close the border and went on local news to call for the deportation of a group of migrant men charged with assaulting police officers in Times Square.

When his opponent, Mazi Pilip, condemned a bipartisan Senate deal that included stiff border security provisions that conservatives had demanded, Mr. Suozzi went on the attack, accusing her of putting partisanship over national security.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/13/nyregion/suozzi-democrats-win-santos.html