Is Biden in Denial About the Polls? Or is the happy talk just spin? [View all]

[brooklynite]

New York Magazine

There is a persistent strain of thought among many Democratic partisans that polls showing Biden trailing are inaccurate. The theory goes that polls have missed Democratic Party strength in the 2022 midterms and a series of special and off-year elections, thereby demonstrating that polling predictably underestimates Democratic strength at the polls.

This theory is deeply unpersuasive. In the Trump era, Republicans have gained strength among low-propensity voters, while Democrats have gained among high-propensity voters. This means low-turnout elections systematically select for a more Democratic electorate, a reversal of the historic pattern. It does not necessarily translate to presidential elections, which draw a much larger cohort. In 2020, polls heavily overestimated Biden and underestimated Trump.

These partisans often point to the widespread expectation of a “red wave” in 2022. But that narrative was driven by reporters and pundits ignoring the polls, which showed a much closer split and no red wave. It is not a reason to discard polls. Polls are not and never have been perfect, and they usually miss the result by at least a little. But it is impossible to predict beforehand either the size or the direction of a polling error.

The polls may be underestimating Biden, but they may just as well be underestimating Trump. To assume Biden must be doing better than the polls indicate is nothing more than wishful thinking.