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All Mixed Up

(597 posts)
2. Polls are an incomplete picture.
Tue Mar 5, 2024, 12:19 AM
Mar 2024

Most polls released right now have a high undecided number and that makes them pretty useless at the moment, especially when a lot of these polls are within the MOE.

What we do know is that Trump has likely shored up his base support a bit more than Biden. But that also means maybe he's capped out at his current percentages. What is not evidence, and there's no proof of this, is that Biden is losing support to Trump. So, much of the support Biden garnered in 2020 is either undecided between Biden, voting third party or not voting at all - but again, no evidence that they're voting Trump.

If there's 10% undecided and Biden wins 70% of that, that'll add 7 points to his average right now.

Until we get further into the election season, it's pointless to look at polls RIGHT NOW and claim much of anything beyond the fact it's an incomplete picture.

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