Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News Editorials & Other Articles General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search
 

All Mixed Up

(597 posts)
22. The problem with these numbers...
Wed Mar 6, 2024, 02:04 PM
Mar 2024

1. There were no exit polls done on the Democratic side so we don't know if Biden's numbers, at least the satisfied/unsatisfied part would be similar to Trump's. We can assume maybe not because he's winning by a wider clip than Trump but it's not an apples to apples comparison as Haley was a much more visible and known candidate than Dean Phillips. Biden has only faced token opposition in this race. A more known Democrat might have done substantially better than Phillips.

2. You mentioned in another post that Haley is doing better in open primaries than closed, meaning crossover appeal. How many Haley voters in these open primary states ever supported Trump? How many actually voted Trump in 2020? I suspect that number probably mirrors, or is close to, the polling on whether they'll vote for Trump or not in November.

So, is Trump actually losing support or are these old school Republicans and independents who never supported Trump in the first place?

That's the million dollar question. If Trump never had these voters to begin with, then he isn't actually losing anything.

Recommendations

0 members have recommended this reply (displayed in chronological order):

Who do you suppose these folks will vote for in the general election? Walleye Mar 2024 #1
if you look at the exit polls, they expressed support for Democratic priorities bigtree Mar 2024 #2
The problem both sides face is voters not voting for POTUS underpants Mar 2024 #3
Voting uncommitted was performative. They were "sending a message," blah blah blah, Ocelot II Mar 2024 #9
Some will vote for Biden. Some will not vote in the presidential election. No idea on what the breakdown might be. WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #4
not anywhere near the same on the republican side bigtree Mar 2024 #7
I hope that holds up, but it seems like Republicans have some kind of disease Walleye Mar 2024 #11
I think most of this represents independents in open primaries bigtree Mar 2024 #17
The problem with these numbers... All Mixed Up Mar 2024 #22
all but one ST race had President Biden pulling 90 plus percent of the vote bigtree Mar 2024 #24
Biden has not faced a serious primary challenge. All Mixed Up Mar 2024 #26
that doesn't mean the party isn't behind him bigtree Mar 2024 #30
I never claimed Biden doesn't have the party behind him. All Mixed Up Mar 2024 #35
Also note that at least in CA the total omits writeins and undervotes. David__77 Mar 2024 #36
People will get the government they deserve Pototan Mar 2024 #8
The concept of "deserving" is such an odd one, particuarly when talking about government in a widely disenfranchised WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #10
Well, people who choose not to vote are definitely disenfranchised by themselves Walleye Mar 2024 #12
Exactly. JohnSJ Mar 2024 #31
We have to try to drill it into their heads that not voting for Biden, is voting for Trump Walleye Mar 2024 #13
People are generaly very aware of what the stakes are when they check one box over another -- or don't. WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #14
I hope so. Walleye Mar 2024 #23
Is there a comparison to 2012 FHRRK Mar 2024 #5
Uncommitted got a little more than 3% in 2012. OTOH, that was a caucus result; this is Minnesota's first WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #6
Thanks FHRRK Mar 2024 #19
Yes, when I saw the internal polls in 12, I literally cried. I was worried that we would lose. Demsrule86 Mar 2024 #16
That's right! I'd be willing to bet its the same in MN PortTack Mar 2024 #21
MI and MN both appear to have set intentionally low goals. TwilightZone Mar 2024 #15
Democrats don't get more left wing than in CA, and Biden took 90% of the vote or more usonian Mar 2024 #18
Note CA state results do not include undervotes or write-ins. David__77 Mar 2024 #29
FYI: President Obama had a very similar number of uncommitted voters in MI during his reelection bid PortTack Mar 2024 #20
Cease fire now. TakeItEasy Mar 2024 #25
How about demanding release of the HOSTAGES? Did you also speak out when hamas killed, JohnSJ Mar 2024 #28
They assume Biden isn't aware? and if they refuse to vote for him in November, and we lose JohnSJ Mar 2024 #27
Isn't aware of what? WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #33
Just WTF do these people expect the Biden administration to do? Seriously, what? NoMoreRepugs Mar 2024 #32
Stop flooding arms into Israel despite mounting alarm over war's conduct WhiskeyGrinder Mar 2024 #34
Latest Discussions»General Discussion»'Uncommitted' vote agains...»Reply #22