We may be in trouble

[All Mixed Up]

122. Let me help you out here...

I was being sarcastic about polls sucking - you know, going off what you said about polls being wrong.

But let's jump right into what you have to say!

Fetterman had a stroke, so he and his pre-election polls are hardly indicative. Exit polling showed Dobbs still drove the majority of his support, so my point stands. Dobbs energizes women.

Huh? You seem to be debating two points here or did you forget to finish a thought?

For what it's worth, 45% of Oz voters said abortion should at least be legal in most cases according to exit polls. So, there are plenty of Republicans voting for anti-choice candidates despite believing in a woman's right to choose.

On top of that, of those who voted in Pennsylvania, Biden had a 54% disapproval rating - including 43% who strongly disapproved. To put that into perspective, on Nov. 8, 2022, Biden's average disapproval nationally was at ... 54%. So, Pennsylvania aligned exactly with Biden's disapproval nationally. Today? His disapproval is 56%. His approval is even worse. On election day, 2022, it was 42% and now it's 40%. So, Biden went from a -12% in approval/disapproval to -16% currently. That means today, despite the contrary, Biden's approval/disapproval is four-points worse than in November 2022.

And guess what? On Nov. 8th, 2022, the day of the midterms, Biden and Trump were tied in the polls.

Today? Trump leads by three-points (almost exactly the margin Biden's approval/disapproval has dipped since then). You know, it's like maybe he lost support (like I said initially).

Clearly not true. Not all states were open primaries. And she still won 19% of Republicans in Virginia.

If Biden is in trouble, it certainly is not reflected in primary results.

By that logic, Biden is in trouble in Minnesota because 28% of Democratic voters voted for someone other than Biden.

I mean, if we really want to get deep in the weeds of this: losing 20% to Uncommitted doesn't look so good as to losing 20% to an actual real-life candidate who's put time and money into campaigning.

But since you like polls:

And yet in the same poll, in a four-way race, Biden only leads Trump by one-point.

The margins? Biden 38, Trump 37, Kennedy 15.

Going off the 2020 national results, where Biden scores 51% of the national vote to Trump's 47%, Biden is 13 points worse nationally than he did in 2020 and Trump is doing 10 points worse.

Like I said: Biden appears to have lost more support than Trump at this time. The poll you link to pretty much proves my point. Thank you.

At the end of the day, the tangible numbers we have to go on point to Biden doing worse overall to his 2020 total than Trump.

I don't think that really is up for debate. You can tell me that you don't necessarily believe it and that the polls are potentially very wrong, and that's fine, but with the data we have: Biden is struggling shoring up his support.

In the average of polls in a multi-person race, Biden is at 38% and Trump 41%. And that's the average.

Now if you want to question those polls, that's fine. But you can't say they're wrong. You can say you disagree with them. But in head-to-head data, with what we have to go on in reference to Biden and Trump, Biden is doing 13 points worse than he did in 2020 on average and Trump, according to the averages, is only doing six-points worse.

With how narrow 2020 was, the fact Biden only won Wisconsin by 20,682, Georgia by 11,779 and Arizona by 10,457 (for a total of 43,000), there's reason to be worried.

We focus on national polls but the state polls are even worse.

Again, they could be off.

But going back to the end of October 2022 to election day 2022, Fetterman led six polls, Oz led six polls and there was one tie (and if I go back before that, Fetterman leads in pretty much every poll).

My point? There were data points you could look to that suggested Fetterman was well-positioned.

Right now in Pennsylvania? The last poll Biden led in was January when you factor in a three-way race.

It's even worse in Arizona. The last poll Biden led in Arizona was back in April, 2023.

Trump leads Biden by an average of 5 points there currently.

Wisconsin? Biden hasn't led in a poll since October. The last two polls? Trump +3 and Trump +4. It's worse when you factor third party candidates. Trump's lead jumps to an average of 4 points.

Michigan is much the same way: Biden hasn't led in a poll since October. In a two-person race, he trails on average of 3.6 points.

But let's take a look at Michigan since that is a state most think Biden might be vulnerable the most of the states he won because of the Gaza conflict.

Biden's average polling in a two-person race is 42.6%. He won Michigan with 50.5%.

Trump's average polling is 46%. Trump won 47.7% in 2020 there.

So, Trump is doing about 1.7 points worse. Biden is doing about 8 points worse.

Why is Biden doing worse? Because of what I said initially: he has lost more support compared to 2020 than Trump did.

I don't think he's losing his support to Trump. I do think he risks losing it to a third party.

And guess what? Trump won Michigan with 47% of the vote in 2016.

Or basically where's polling now.

That's the concern if you're Biden's camp. He has to figure out a way to win over some very frustrated voters. And you can say Roe will do it - and maybe it will - but it's not showing in the polls right now. A lot of these voters are saying it doesn't matter.

Like I said, polling could be off. But polling wasn't that off in 2022 and while Democrats have won a lot of special elections, most have been won in Democratic-leaning districts. You know, like Tom Suozzi a few weeks ago.

Polling had him winning. He did win by a larger margin than polls indicated. But polls did say he was going to win. And we don't quite know the end margin because New York takes FOREVER to finalize their totals (right now, the only numbers I can find were from 93% reporting).

But New York's 3rd congressional district is a lean-Democratic district. Yes, Santos carried it in 2022 but Suozzi won this district back in 2020 over Santos 56-39.

It's a district Biden carried by ten-points in 2020.

It's a swing-lean Democratic district.

I don't know how much you can go off those results.

Ultimately, the polls indicate Biden has lost more support than Trump. The question at the end of the day will be how much more. Biden can afford to lose support. Trump can't. But Biden also had a very narrow win in 2020 where turnout was extremely high and people extremely motivated to vote.

I don't see that motivation as of now.

At least toward Biden.

Hopefully that changes between now and November. I think it can. But Biden has to be proactive with his messaging. If he keeps doing what he did last week, he'll likely motivate more and more voters.

But it would be foolish to ignore the warning signs of the polls. Right now, they're telling us a huge chunk of Biden 2020 voters are not sold on him just yet.