**Donald Trump's Hopes of Black Support Stung by New Poll** (Pew Research Center)

[All Mixed Up]

29. 1994 is a weird year to compare - so, let's compare to 2020.

1. Democrats took a hit in 1994 after having the presidency for two-years (and would get hammered in November's midterms that year).

2. At least since 2000, Democrats have historically had a larger advantage among Black voters than they did in the 1990s. In 1992, Clinton won 83% of the Black vote. In 2020, Biden won 87%. So, he saw a four-point increase in his totals. In 1996, Clinton won 84% of Blacks - so, still less than what Biden saw in 2020.

Knowing all that, let's take a look at the 2020 survey.

So, Republicans held a 53-42 edge among white voters in 2020. Now? 56-41.

That's not good.

Democrats have lost one-point and Republicans have improved by three-points. That's a four-point swing.

Of course, this is a poll and not actual voters. In 2020, though, Biden won 41% of white voters and Trump 58%.

So, Biden is hitting about the number his total was in 2020's actual votes, while Trump is doing two-points worse than he did in 2020.

Except the polling (done in July, 2020 instead of April) was off from the actual 2020 numbers. Trump did much better (+17) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (margin +11).

Among Black voters, the poll in 2020 had Democrats winning 83% and Republicans 10%.

Now? It's 83 to 12.

So, Republicans have actually seen a two-point increase here.

How does that compare to the 2020 race?

Well I already pointed out that Biden won 87% of Black voters - and Trump won 12%.

Biden did better (+75) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (margin +71).

With Hispanics, the poll in 2020 had Democrats winning 63% of and Republicans 29%.

Now? 61% to 35%.

Republicans have made gains here. Democrats lost two-points off their 2020 total and Republicans increased their total by six. That's a swing of eight-points. That's significant. That's the biggest difference of any of the demographics.

BUT in 2020, Biden won 65% of the Hispanic vote - Trump 32%.

So, Biden did worse (+33) in actual votes than he did in the 2020 Pew poll (+34) - but barely. It was only one-point off in the margins.

What does this mean? Democrats have lost support across the board. But it also could just be MOE fluctuation.

With that said, as close as 2020 was, if these losses hold, Biden is going to have a difficult time winning in November.

To summarize:

Democrats are doing four-points worse among white voters than in the 2020 poll.

Democrats are doing two-points worse among Black voters than in the 2020 poll.

Democrats are doing eight-points worse among Hispanic voters than in the 2020 poll.

Which I think probably balances out to the actual lead they see in the party identification overall (+1).

+1 ain't going to get it done.

If Biden wins the popular vote by one, he's likely losing reelection.

My final takeaway: these numbers don't show a dramatic shift but a shift nonetheless and that shift is very problematic unless it's corrected between now and November.