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(3,572 posts)
Sun Apr 14, 2024, 11:48 AM Apr 14

American climate migration is underway [View all]


The complex, contradictory and heartbreaking process of American climate migration is underway

Abrahm LustgartenandProPublicaApril 14, 2024

Another great American migration is now underway, this time forced by the warming that is altering how and where people can live. For now, it’s just a trickle. But in the corners of the country’s most vulnerable landscapes — on the shores of its sinking bayous and on the eroding bluffs of its coastal defenses — populations are already in disarray.

As the U.S. gets hotter, its coastal waters rise higher, its wildfires burn larger and its droughts last longer, the notion that humankind can triumph over nature is fading, and with it, slowly, goes the belief that self-determination and personal preference can be the driving factors in choosing where to live. Scientific modeling of these pressures suggest a sweeping change is coming in the shape and location of communities across America, a change that promises to transform the country’s politics, culture and economy.

It has already begun. More Americans are displaced by catastrophic climate-change-driven storms and floods and fires every year. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, the global nongovernmental organization researchers rely on to measure the number of people forcibly cast out of their homes by natural disasters, counted very few displaced Americans in 2009, 2010 and 2011, years in which few natural disasters struck the United States. But by 2016 the numbers had begun to surge, with between 1 million and 1.7 million newly displaced people annually. The disasters and heat waves each year have become legion. But the statistics show the human side of what has appeared to be a turning point in both the severity and frequency of wildfires and hurricanes. As the number of displaced people continues to grow, an ever-larger portion of those affected will make their moves permanent, migrating to safer ground or supportive communities. They will do so either because a singular disaster like the 2018 wildfire in Paradise, California — or Hurricane Harvey, which struck the Texas and Louisiana coasts — is so destructive it forces them to, or because the subtler “slow onset” change in their surroundings gradually grows so intolerable, uncomfortable or inconvenient that they make the decision to leave, proactively, by choice. In a 2021 study published in the journal Climatic Change, researchers found that 57% of the Americans they surveyed believed that changes in their climate would push them to consider a move sometime in the next decade.

Also in 2021, the national real estate firm Redfin conducted a similar nationwide survey, finding that nearly half of Americans who planned to move that year said that climate risks were already driving their decisions. Some 52% of people moving from the West said that rising and extreme heat was a factor, and 48% of respondents moving from the Northeast pointed to sea level rise as their predominant threat. Roughly one in four Americans surveyed told Redfin they would no longer consider a move to a region facing extreme heat, no matter how much more affordable that location was. And nearly one-third of people said that “there was no price at which” they would consider buying a home in a coastal region affected by rising seas. When Redfin broadened its survey to include more than a thousand people who had not yet decided to move, a whopping 75% of them said that they would think twice before buying a home in a place facing rising heat or other climate risks.

…more… long read…
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Climate is certainly a big consideration when buying a home in FL. lark Apr 14 #1
A trickle of people that can afford to move to safer places will become a torrent of people erronis Apr 14 #2
As the author points out, there are places that can't really be rebuilt, so survivors must move Hekate Apr 14 #22
Please use the original source (ProPublica) when posting these articles erronis Apr 14 #3
I tried but couldn't access. Thanks for original link. cbabe Apr 14 #8
Thank you! mahina Apr 14 #33
Meanwhile Florida is third in the nation in possitive net migration growth. progressoid Apr 14 #4
Yikes! I saw a two-panel map of Florida a few months ago that calimary Apr 14 #30
Global warming refugee here not fooled Apr 14 #5
Yes, the entire SW is in peril with the Colorado River drying up. Before too long there will be no water or electricity. PSPS Apr 14 #6
A few years ago Mme. Defarge Apr 14 #9
That's what we decided, too. Never been happier! calimary Apr 14 #31
There's a decent light rail in the Phoenix area Retrograde Apr 14 #13
I am not sure I would say the light rail is decent. former9thward Apr 14 #18
Folks in the Sulpher Spring Valley east of Sierra Visita would like a word re not affecting people Attilatheblond Apr 14 #32
AZ is going to see net migration out Warpy Apr 14 #17
That is not true. former9thward Apr 14 #20
The Wildcat Subdivision loophole not fooled Apr 14 #26
Did you have water issues? former9thward Apr 14 #28
Per local well drillers and engineers not fooled Apr 14 #38
Developers are not being honest re 100 years of water. Attilatheblond Apr 14 #34
Oh, yeah, that goes on not fooled Apr 14 #40
Agriculture responded to less Colorado River water by punping out ground water Warpy Apr 14 #41
"...a long time before global warming..." ret5hd Apr 14 #25
Yeah, that about sums him up not fooled Apr 14 #27
I did notice, though, that two years ago we had 100+ degree temperatures for three days. calimary Apr 14 #43
Maybe they shouldn't have moved in the first place. LisaM Apr 14 #7
It takes less power to AC those areas to a comfortable level than you think. former9thward Apr 14 #23
I went ahead and looked up which states have the most power usage. LisaM Apr 14 #35
Wasn't your post about AC? former9thward Apr 14 #37
That was just an example of why people shouldn't necessarily all go to the South. LisaM Apr 14 #42
IN the North West we're already seeing the effects of this. One effect has been radical reduction in affordable housing. Ford_Prefect Apr 14 #10
Oh, yeah not fooled Apr 14 #11
Polls are one thing, reality is another. former9thward Apr 14 #12
And the South and Southwest are seeing insurance rates skyrocket NickB79 Apr 14 #15
Insurance rates are rising everywhere. former9thward Apr 14 #16
The scale of property value to be lost is in the trillions NickB79 Apr 14 #39
Yep. Denial is a real thing. Brenda Apr 14 #21
Companies such as Redfin are part of the problem IMHO Retrograde Apr 14 #14
Glad you mentioned Redfin - all of these companies really want to have housing churn. erronis Apr 14 #24
Been talking about that for years here, often to dismissals. Brenda Apr 14 #19
Texas and Florida are both growing in population like wildfire. Chainfire Apr 14 #29
A town talked about in the article, Slidell, LA, just four days ago hit by Backseat Driver Apr 14 #36
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