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In reply to the discussion: My DNA test says I am from the Levant. [View all]Celerity
(53,589 posts)71. massive (profoundly so) overcounting of how many total humans have existed over the past 2500 years + completely wrong
maths
you said
Thats 100 generations or 2 to the hundredth power.
100 generations of humans from 2500 BCE to the present day does not produce 2 to the 100th power (roughly 1.268 nonillion) humans who have existed in that time period, nor ever existed, going back to hominid times millions of years ago
that claim is off by orders of magnitude
I would say the total number of humans and homnids who have existed since 4 million years ago is likely below 160 billion max, and almost certainly well, well below 200 billion max
2 to 20 billion total between 4 million BCE and 200,000 BCE (and, my words, lets double that 20 billion to 40 billion to give every benefit of the doubt)
Hominid population estimates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prehistoric_demography
It is estimated by J. Lawrence Angel that the average life span of hominids on the African savanna between 4,000,000 and 200,000 years ago was 20 years. This means that the population would be completely renewed about five times per century, assuming that infant mortality has already been accounted for. It is further estimated that the population of hominids in Africa fluctuated between 10,000 and 100,000 individuals, thus averaging about 50,000 individuals. Multiplying 40,000 centuries by 50,000 to 500,000 individuals per century yields a total of 2 billion to 20 billion hominids that lived during that approximately 4,000,000-year time span.
Hominid population estimates
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prehistoric_demography
It is estimated by J. Lawrence Angel that the average life span of hominids on the African savanna between 4,000,000 and 200,000 years ago was 20 years. This means that the population would be completely renewed about five times per century, assuming that infant mortality has already been accounted for. It is further estimated that the population of hominids in Africa fluctuated between 10,000 and 100,000 individuals, thus averaging about 50,000 individuals. Multiplying 40,000 centuries by 50,000 to 500,000 individuals per century yields a total of 2 billion to 20 billion hominids that lived during that approximately 4,000,000-year time span.
and, roughly, around 120 billion since then:
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-humans-have-ever-lived/
Quantifying Our Ancestors
snip
Quantifying all of humanity requires a firm starting date for when humans became, well, human. Evolution is a gradual process, so figuring out the start date for humankind is no easy task. For the purposes of this exercise, however, the two demographers used 190,000 BCE as the cutoff.
There are two opposing points to consider when thinking about prehistoric humans:
Around the chosen start date, the global cohort of humans was quite smallperhaps as low as only 30,000 individuals.
Before the modern era, lifespans were much shorter, so long stretches of time can actually influence numbers drastically.
With this context and timeframe in mind, the demographers estimate that 109 billion people have lived and died over the course of 192,000 years. If we add the number of people alive today, we get 117 billion humans that have ever lived.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/cp/how-many-humans-have-ever-lived/
Quantifying Our Ancestors
snip
Quantifying all of humanity requires a firm starting date for when humans became, well, human. Evolution is a gradual process, so figuring out the start date for humankind is no easy task. For the purposes of this exercise, however, the two demographers used 190,000 BCE as the cutoff.
There are two opposing points to consider when thinking about prehistoric humans:
Around the chosen start date, the global cohort of humans was quite smallperhaps as low as only 30,000 individuals.
Before the modern era, lifespans were much shorter, so long stretches of time can actually influence numbers drastically.
With this context and timeframe in mind, the demographers estimate that 109 billion people have lived and died over the course of 192,000 years. If we add the number of people alive today, we get 117 billion humans that have ever lived.
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I dare say most Europeans' and Anglo-Americans' ancestors came through the levant at one point
Ponietz
May 2024
#2
massive (profoundly so) overcounting of how many total humans have existed over the past 2500 years + completely wrong
Celerity
May 2024
#71
it's not an astronomical number, even going back 4 million years, the total number of humans/hominids who ever lived
Celerity
May 2024
#80
yes, 6th is the target. We absolutely bollocksed up the 2 blown lead draws versus the 2 worst teams in the EPL
Celerity
May 2024
#92
Apparently some think not, and if they want to employ that line of reasoning,
RockRaven
May 2024
#17
No I think they're jokingly pointing out that that if Trump is elected claiming to be from the Levant will only get you
okaawhatever
May 2024
#49
actually, voting for biden is probably all you need to get deported.....
getagrip_already
May 2024
#53
Damn, I wish all Catholics had the right to be citizens of some country like that
Polybius
May 2024
#40
You need an old old leather bound book they claims some gods gave it to you
ExciteBike66
May 2024
#76
A right of return? How many generations since your ancestors left for greener pastures?
brush
May 2024
#77
Yep, many trekked to Europe. Guess the question is should a right of return be a matter of...
brush
May 2024
#81
Should contemporary geopolitics be based on the ancient myths of a single group of people?
Crunchy Frog
May 2024
#108
Geopolitics is foremost about power. Ideology keeps the parts working together.
David__77
May 2024
#111