Nate Silver gives Trump a 65% chance of winning.,..

[Celerity]

37. The Los Angeles Times nailed it.

The USC/L.A. Times poll saw what other surveys missed: A wave of Trump support

Here’s how the USC/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll is different from the others.

https://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20161108-story.html

Reporting from Washington —

For most of the last four months, the USC/L.A. Times Daybreak tracking poll has been the great outlier of the 2016 campaign -- consistently showing a better result for Donald Trump than other surveys did. In light of Tuesday’s election returns, the poll now looks like the only major survey to see the wave coming.

Most of the summer and fall, the poll’s results have been about 6 percentage points more favorable to the Republican than the polling averages. As of Tuesday morning, the poll’s final forecast for the election showed Trump leading by a little over 3 points, 46.8% to 43.6%.

The poll’s findings caused dismay — even outrage — among some readers, especially Democrats, who have denounced it and often criticized The Times for running it.

But just as four years ago the poll was one of the few that did not underestimate President Obama’s support, it seems as though it may have been on its own in not underestimating Trump’s.

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