General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: This forum has lost it. [View all]Frank D. Lincoln
(894 posts)There are so many different scenarios, some more probable than others, that could unfold between now and November.
Regarding Biden, I think the most probable scenario is that he's going to become the Democratic nominee (but I could turn out to be wrong).
Regarding Trump, I actually think it's slightly less probable that he'll become the Republican nominee due to his current legal predicament. Although the odds are against Trump receiving a prison sentence on July 11, four days before the Republican convention on July 15, that could happen. Republicans would likely still nominate him but that would greatly complicate things for them and Trump.
In contrast, all Biden has working against him is last night's poor debate performance (and remember, at that gathering immediately following the debate, he seemed to be fine). I'd much rather be Biden than Trump.
My own personal plan under the circumstances is to double down on supporting Biden. If nothing else, Biden has proven conclusively that he's the comeback kid.
Although I might end up with egg on my face, my prediction is that Biden will go on to be reelected with more electoral votes than he received in 2020.