General Discussion

Self Esteem

(2,248 posts)

33. I don't think it's ridiculous.

Wed Jul 17, 2024, 08:28 AM

Jul 2024

It's always about margin with these things.

In 2020, Biden won the 18-29 vote 60-36, or by 24 points. Granted, this is a poll of 18-34 year olds, so I'm sure the margin he won of that demographic would be a bit smaller in 2020 (no data exists that I can find) but he likely still won it by 20 points.

Assuming he did, when you factor in RFK Jr., his lead over just Trump goes from around +20 in 2020 to +12.

That's eight-points worse than he did in 2020.

Take RFK Jr. out and the margin is 59-41, or 18 points, likely the same, or very similar to 2020.

Trump is absolutely aided by RFK Jr. being in this poll as it neutralizes Biden's largest demographic, even if he comes in third because RFK Jr. is pulling more support from Biden than Trump here (in this poll, Biden's percentage goes from 59% to 37% and Trump's goes from 41% to 27%).

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Trump gets no boost from shooting, loses ground to Biden per Morning Consult [View all] ucrdem Jul 2024 OP

Let's see what "boost" the Turd gets after the Milwaukee Coronation and Royal Hate Fest Tarzanrock Jul 2024 #1

I've been wondering too, but I just put the reply in the wrong place. ucrdem Jul 2024 #6

Do they love his mini pad or not? Haven't seen polling on that.......... Bengus81 Jul 2024 #35

Once again, meaningless. Show us the battle ground states. oldsoftie Jul 2024 #2

Not many polls matter HarryM Jul 2024 #4

Also true; lets look again in Oct oldsoftie Jul 2024 #25

There will be only one poll that matters in 2024 Wednesdays Jul 2024 #38

Amazing battleground-state poll of 18-34 year olds. ucrdem Jul 2024 #8

Wow, so that's why Trump called RFK Jr. trying to get him to drop out? SunSeeker Jul 2024 #10

I'm not hueymahl Jul 2024 #20

I've seen the same. The "cool" candidate. nt oldsoftie Jul 2024 #26

They say that literally every election............ Bengus81 Jul 2024 #36

It should be the exact opposite. Trump is absolutely aided by RFK Jr. in this poll. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #34

Now, if we could just get this demographic to actually vote, we would be in good shape. SKKY Jul 2024 #14

What a ridiculous headline! yardwork Jul 2024 #23

I don't think it's ridiculous. Self Esteem Jul 2024 #33

UGH Kennedy. Really wonder where those would go if he were OUT oldsoftie Jul 2024 #27

100% hueymahl Jul 2024 #18

BooHoo... Cha Jul 2024 #3

Oh but all is forgotten in believer land. ucrdem Jul 2024 #7

Yeah, that's why I pay less than ZERO Cha Jul 2024 #9

EXCEPT at my conventions. nt oldsoftie Jul 2024 #28

I've been wondering about that. ucrdem Jul 2024 #5

... trusty elf Jul 2024 #11

How can he be leading? Who are these people? Joinfortmill Jul 2024 #12

Biden is steadily picking up support. ucrdem Jul 2024 #16

Yes he is. Consistently everywhere underpants Jul 2024 #29

Thank you. Joinfortmill Jul 2024 #31

I wonder if the media moniss Jul 2024 #13

GOTV and we win every time. We outnumber the bastards and must be heard. jaxexpat Jul 2024 #15

GOTV will be the key as always underpants Jul 2024 #30

It's democracy's secret weapon. jaxexpat Jul 2024 #37

My comments would be crass. Let us all have a great day. twodogsbarking Jul 2024 #17

So doubling down on violent rhetoric, making wild accusations, and relying on bats*** crazy conspiracy theories ... Crowman2009 Jul 2024 #19

unite and gotv/ roevember nt et tu Jul 2024 #21

The assassination attempt changes NOTHING about Trump! Fyrefox Jul 2024 #22

Chaos is the key IMHO underpants Jul 2024 #32

Biden is winning Johnny2X2X Jul 2024 #24

My first thought is this will get him votes, then watching the Republicans for a day LizBeth Jul 2024 #39

Hard to feel sympathy for him. He encourages violence. Dem4life1234 Jul 2024 #40

Which is why Mad_Machine76 Jul 2024 #41