General Discussion

yardwork

(69,904 posts)

31. Yes. We have a problem with the essential swing states.

Thu Jul 18, 2024, 01:47 PM

Jul 2024

Biden appears to be trailing in several of our must-win states. He may very well win the popular vote, but the EC is all that matters.

Lichtman was correct in 2000 when he predicted that Gore would win the popular vote. Personally, I think that Gore also won FL but the SCOTUS disagreed. No way is Biden winning FL now. He's trailing in NC, GA, AZ, NV, and even PA. MI looks iffy, especially with Rasheeda Tlaib telling her Detroit constituents to vote against Biden. The Teamsters president spoke at the RNC and hasn't endorsed Biden. If we lose the union vote we lose the upper Midwest. It could be a landslide EC win for Trump.

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democrattotheend deurbano Frank D. Lincoln radius777

103 replies

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Highlight:

BREAKING: Prof. Lichtman: "If Democrats hope to retain the White House in November, they need to support Joe Biden." [View all] Deek1935 Jul 2024 OP

Welcome to DU mahina Jul 2024 #1

750 posts in 18 days JoseBalow Jul 2024 #28

I meant it sincerely mahina Jul 2024 #30

I never doubted it JoseBalow Jul 2024 #69

Aloha kaua mahina Jul 2024 #72

TThese are Posting Times.. Wanna Guess Cha Jul 2024 #44

Only a small percent of your 300k+ posts I'm sure. CincyDem Jul 2024 #54

lol... So I can relate to Cha Jul 2024 #58

Hey, I'm one of the biggest loudmouths on here - TONS of posts! calimary Jul 2024 #60

It's an Obsession Now more than Ever. Perilous Cha Jul 2024 #94

"Number of posts, last 90 days: 3696" JoseBalow Jul 2024 #68

See what I mean' Cha Jul 2024 #74

I noticed your total the other day and wondered when you ever got to sleep! Hekate Jul 2024 #92

I manage to get my 8 in... lol Cha Jul 2024 #96

Quite a few, I'm sure! Abolishinist Jul 2024 #102

lol.. I'm really Cha Jul 2024 #103

Not really breaking. He's been saying this all along FBaggins Jul 2024 #2

He just posted this latest one 20 hours ago and I guess you can not see the words NEVER - BEEN - WRONG. Deek1935 Jul 2024 #5

Typical of previous poster. Not surprised. triron Jul 2024 #16

This message was self-deleted by its author BannonsLiver Jul 2024 #25

His "subjective nonsense" has 0 failures so far. Hermit-The-Prog Jul 2024 #38

It isn't overly speculative nonsense Tweedy Jul 2024 #77

Damn right! Initech Jul 2024 #3

That is good idea. Butterflylady Jul 2024 #66

And there it is...finally some sense...and his guy knows what he is talking about. Demsrule86 Jul 2024 #4

Yes, we need to hear more such voices, more often, PatSeg Jul 2024 #17

Kick asm128 Jul 2024 #6

Just tweeted that @ them CousinIT Jul 2024 #7

Do you have a link to the Tweet Cha Jul 2024 #15

Tweet + quote-tweet CousinIT Jul 2024 #22

Wow. You're So Helpful!! Cha Jul 2024 #27

I followed you on Xitter, too. :) CousinIT Jul 2024 #48

Thank You, IT... I'd like Cha Jul 2024 #51

With some slight adjustments... TheProle Jul 2024 #8

If I understand correctly, his model predicts the popular vote democrattotheend Jul 2024 #9

Yes. We have a problem with the essential swing states. yardwork Jul 2024 #31

This is becoming a nightmare I can't wake up from. Frank D. Lincoln Jul 2024 #84

Yeah, Lichtman's model is outdated, as radius777 Jul 2024 #95

Agree republianmushroom Jul 2024 #10

I believe THAT is a key question that possibly answers itself. dchill Jul 2024 #23

Because she's Bettie Jul 2024 #29

You could be very correct. republianmushroom Jul 2024 #33

Just spoke yesterday with a longtime friend. She and her husband voted for tsf in 2016 and 2020 allegorical oracle Jul 2024 #52

Amen and yes. He will win the White House. valleyrogue Jul 2024 #11

K&R Wicked Blue Jul 2024 #12

Can you Please give us a link.. TY! Cha Jul 2024 #13

Lichtman has a "Plan B"? Is that new? SunSeeker Jul 2024 #14

Plan A & B, SunSeeker... Cha Jul 2024 #34

That could be dangerously risky. The Senate AND House have to confirm a new VP, and Harris deurbano Jul 2024 #61

I agree So Cha Jul 2024 #71

Yeah, I didn't mean you supported that plan! But I'm suddenly hearing it from deurbano Jul 2024 #73

Exactly what could go Cha Jul 2024 #76

Preach it, Deek peggysue2 Jul 2024 #18

That's Right, PeggySue.. You Preach It!! Cha Jul 2024 #40

Delete markodochartaigh Jul 2024 #19

Is he a God? Renew Deal Jul 2024 #20

Yup duckworth969 Jul 2024 #21

Waaaay too much hysteria. Take it down a notch. yardwork Jul 2024 #24

As someone posted elsewhere ....the Oligarchs are calling the shots. Dan Jul 2024 #26

Yes. I have noticed that this whole BS started with oligarchs on the left soldierant Jul 2024 #81

I trust Biden's instincts more than that model. carpetbagger Jul 2024 #32

Except the people close to him who think he should resign johnnyplankton Jul 2024 #35

I wish I knew what the reality is. I really don't. HUAJIAO Jul 2024 #64

He knows, I know too... sanduca Jul 2024 #36

Not arguing with the your preference or even your sentiment here KPN Jul 2024 #37

No, it didn't. asm128 Jul 2024 #39

I did look it up. One of these two is right and one is wrong. KPN Jul 2024 #46

Wiki asm128 Jul 2024 #47

His website is not independent. Renew Deal Jul 2024 #49

Whatever .... KPN Jul 2024 #86

Brilliant retort asm128 Jul 2024 #89

Lol. Stop wasting your time. Goodbye. KPN Jul 2024 #90

I disagree with him. sky_masterson Jul 2024 #41

I wonder if that would be true right now if Biden had delivered a great debate performance. Frank D. Lincoln Jul 2024 #85

Howard Dean screamed and had to quit. sky_masterson Jul 2024 #101

I don't see why Biden would have to resign iemanja Jul 2024 #42

Link XanaDUer2 Jul 2024 #43

Go Joe - Go Kamala BoRaGard Jul 2024 #45

If Biden is forced out wait until names are put out there for a new VP candidate FloridaBlues Jul 2024 #50

this is the answer. SUPPORT BIDEN. ATTACK TRUMP. period. TasminCat Jul 2024 #53

Yep BurnDoubt Jul 2024 #67

This message was self-deleted by its author ArkansasDemocrat1 Jul 2024 #55

This ⬆️⬆️⬆️ VMA131Marine Jul 2024 #56

KnR. iluvtennis Jul 2024 #57

I don't know if I'm posting in the right place bobnicewander Jul 2024 #59

I Agree. Absolutely! BurnDoubt Jul 2024 #62

I think that if Dems push Biden out, they will take Harris. lark Jul 2024 #63

While I like Harris, and I especially like that they're now slightlv Jul 2024 #88

Not blasting, just strongly disagreeing. lark Jul 2024 #98

Thanks for posting. I wish people here would just trust the process. flying_wahini Jul 2024 #65

People be crazy and easily manipulated Farmer-Rick Jul 2024 #70

Amen. The longer we allow this shilly-shallying bed-wetting, pearl-clutching to continue, the more likely Martin68 Jul 2024 #75

Well at least gently please ;)..... Cheezoholic Jul 2024 #78

Yes. So can someone in the party tell the naysayers to, uh, ah, be quiet? lees1975 Jul 2024 #79

Biden bromeando Jul 2024 #80

Fucked with a chainsaw! MyMission Jul 2024 #82

Maybe Prof. Lichtman could speak at the convention. Beartracks Jul 2024 #83

Agreed Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Jul 2024 #87

Joe Can't Resign From Office Unless.... the_liberal_grandpa Jul 2024 #91

Thanks for bringing this here, Deek Hekate Jul 2024 #93

People need to also keep in mind Russia and China are probably fabricating a number of the anti Biden stories. cstanleytech Jul 2024 #97

Yeppers. Also, Mr. Mustard 2023 Jul 2024 #99

listen listen listen BoRaGard Jul 2024 #100