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Doc Sportello

(7,964 posts)
1. Key points he made
Fri Jul 19, 2024, 03:45 PM
Jul 2024

Paraphrasing here:
Calls doing democracy via polling is dangerous; used several examples to back that up
Pointed out he was one of the few who predicted dump would win in 2016 and that he has predicted as many repubs wins as Democratic
Said polling is based on previous elections and are not predictive, and they underestimate Democrats, per 2022 and 2023
Said that polls and pundits have no scientific basis for making accurate predictions
Biden's incumbency keys are very robust
Since 1900 the incumbent party in the WH loses when it is an open seat or contested primary
An open Democratic convention would be the worst case scenario
the media has "done an enormous disservice" to our democracy
And repeatedly called Democrats calling for Biden to step down are spineless.
***

Everything I've read said Lichtman has done better at predicting election outcomes than any pollster or pundit.

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