Better to "Worship At The Alter of Lichtman" as opposed to shitting one's pants over non-predictive polls 4 months out. [View all]
The Lichtman 13 keys are based on time-tested rigorous historical analysis retro-applied to 1860 and applied in real time since 1984 and have NEVER been wrong (including in 2000 when Gore, with a proper recount according to many analyses, would have won in Florida and did win the popular vote).
Lichtman is a veteran Harvard-educated political historian. He has NEVER been wrong because the keys address how American presidential elections REALLY work: as up or down votes on the GOVERNING performance of the INCUMBENT and some other BIG-PICTURE factors.
American presidential elections are NOT predicted by polls, debates, age, or punditry. If they had been, at this time in the election cycle the poll lovers would have been screaming that Dewey in 1948, Dukakis in 1988, Romney in 2012, and Hillary in 2016 were all going to win. In fact, on ELECTION DAY in 2016, all the polls and betting markets were predicting a Hillary win. *** I wish the poll lovers would tell us why Hillary lost in 2016 when the polls they adore said she was going to win. i.e. Princeton Polling said she had a 93% probability of winning. ***
In 2020 Senator Susan Collins was supposed to lose, according to the polls. She won.
This past winter Tom Suazzi for the U.S. House was in a dead heat the day before the election according the polls. He won by 8 points.
In France the right wingers were supposed to take over their parliament according to the polls. The center-left coalition won.
Without the incumbency and non-divisive primary keys, we are almost certain to lose to Trump. WITH them, right now we are winning.
Forget polls. Instead, rally behind our incumbent nominee, stop the clusterfuck, and go after Trump.
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