The good news for Florida - will be Tropical Storm Debby - Update now hurricane at landfall

[orthoclad]

43. Crossing over hot water that

could lead to bombogenesis, spinning up rapidly in a short time. Maybe wind shear will keep that down.

The coastline there is conducive to storm surge. The shape of the bay will help the right-hand side of the storm to blow water north and be trapped at the peak of the bay.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_Bend_(Florida)

Due to the width of the adjacent continental shelf (over 150 kilometers (93 mi)), low gradient slope of the coast (1:5000), and shelter from the usual wind direction of storms, the Big Bend Coast is generally subject to low wave energy, but it is subject to storm surges.[8][9][10][11]