Why I Think Donald Trump Is Certain to Lose This Election.

[Metaphorical]

61. I'm inclined to agree

The transition from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris shook him badly, the first assassination attempt shook him more, and the debate results have him running scared.

I'm not of the believe that he has some nefarious plan in the works that will bypass the election. Yes, he's trying to gum up the works, but this strategy only really works if the election is within the margin of error, and he knows it. He has never WON the popular election, and only won the electoral election because he was unknown.

Ultimately, on the GOP side, he has only a very limited coalition left - his neo-Nazi MAGAts, an increasingly tenuous coalition of fundamentalists, and a very uncertain number of incels. Incels by and large do not vote. they want to see the system brought to its knees, and voting looks far too much like working with the system. They are also largely urbanites, meaning that they don't really have all that much in common with the deep red rural vote.