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Johonny

(26,179 posts)

36. Vote like we're behind

Reply to JohnSJ (Original post)

Mon Sep 23, 2024, 01:06 PM

Sep 2024

Still a good message up or down. Turn out is everything. Rasmussen used to have a formula that worked until it didn't. Same might be true with Siena. We shall see. Either way, turn up.

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NYT/Siena is reporting that in Georgia, North Carolina, and Arizona trump is ahead. [View all] JohnSJ Sep 2024 OP

538... Dennis Donovan Sep 2024 #1

Fixed it for ya... Think. Again. Sep 2024 #7

I don't know about outliers, but their sampling results are different from other pollsters. JohnSJ Sep 2024 #18

I think young women Beausoleil Sep 2024 #2

Maybe they only poll subscribers? CrispyQ Sep 2024 #3

GOTV Is All That Matters Aepps22 Sep 2024 #4

Outliers gonna lie Fiendish Thingy Sep 2024 #5

A 10 point spread is an outlier, and they greatly oversampled GOP obamanut2012 Sep 2024 #6

Do you have that op ed link? kansasobama Sep 2024 #9

the polls are linked here CatWoman Sep 2024 #13

Huge margin of error. jimfields33 Sep 2024 #15

And their last poll was LV, not RV obamanut2012 Sep 2024 #21

I am going to add your link to the OP if you don't mind. Thanks. JohnSJ Sep 2024 #20

any time CatWoman Sep 2024 #42

+++ JohnSJ Sep 2024 #43

I don't have to much faith bdamomma Sep 2024 #8

My understanding is the NYT/Sienna polls SomedayKindaLove Sep 2024 #10

I agree it would be sad kansasobama Sep 2024 #11

Hopefully no matter what, both Nebraska and Maine change jimfields33 Sep 2024 #17

In 2016, polls definitely missed the unlikely/infrequent/new voters Deminpenn Sep 2024 #22

If this is the case then their Harris +5 PA poll is good news /NT Abnredleg Sep 2024 #26

The MoE on a poll with 700 participants is usually around 5% Persondem Sep 2024 #12

Really? 5 percent! I didn't know that. jimfields33 Sep 2024 #19

For fuller accuracy the sample size would have to be known as it takes more Persondem Sep 2024 #35

It's going to come down to turnout DenaliDemocrat Sep 2024 #14

Suddenly they went to RV kansasobama Sep 2024 #16

the NYT RJ_MacReady Sep 2024 #23

If there's a sale at the mall, will the Swifties turn out to vote? PeaceWave Sep 2024 #24

Swifties aren't stupid. EndlessWire Sep 2024 #40

Look at the averages LeftInTX Sep 2024 #25

RCP does not post every poll. Self Esteem Sep 2024 #29

OK...I just noted in 2020, they really didn't show a "red bias". LeftInTX Sep 2024 #32

Likely Voters does NOT usually include new registered, young voters. blm Sep 2024 #27

Here's how Siena calculates LV Abnredleg Sep 2024 #31

They include new voters who have not voted before kansasobama Sep 2024 #38

NYT is full of shit. They are busted a while back over sampling rethugs and not disclosing it Takket Sep 2024 #28

They oversampled GOP by about 4% more than the poll in August showing Harris leading obamanut2012 Sep 2024 #34

I don't know what to think of polls FemDemERA Sep 2024 #30

AZ did not swing TEN points in a month to Trump for no reason whatsoever Bleacher Creature Sep 2024 #33

Not sure kansasobama Sep 2024 #37

Vote like we're behind Johonny Sep 2024 #36

We are behind Abstractartist Sep 2024 #41

Given the other polls I've seen recently this poll showing sudden Trump gains GoodRaisin Sep 2024 #39

It's consistebt with the other polls on 538 LeftInTX Sep 2024 #44