The New York Times Poll Was An Outlier

[Self Esteem]

83. Anyone who paid attention to polling knew that was not going to happen.

Most polls did not show a 'red rave'. That was a narrative kicked up by the media in outright opposition to the polls. Every idea that Republicans would win in a massive landslide was an act of poll denialism because the polls indicated the exact opposite.

Polls had Democrats winning Arizona, Georgia and essentially tied in Pennsylvania.

The national 'generic ballot' poll had Republicans +2.5 on average - they won by +2.8. To put that into perspective, Democrats won the national popular vote in the 2018 congressional midterm elections by eight points (when they took back the House). In 2010, when Republicans actually did see a red wave and took back the House, they won the popular vote by nearly seven points.

In fact, much of what we're seeing here is exactly what Republicans did in 2022. They ignored the polls. They couldn't fathom that Pennsylvania was tight or that Republicans weren't going to wipe out Democrats in the House races.

Despite polls indicating that Democrats were favored, or tied, including the pesky NYT/Siena who everyone thinks is in the bag for Trump.

But the right-wing media didn't want to believe it.

The vibes they were seeing didn't match the polls.

So, they ignored the polls and spoke of winning in Washington and New Hampshire.

Despite no polls having the Republican up.

It was a red wave narrative because they denied the polls.

Just like many here saying it'll be a blue wave despite polls indicating that isn't going to be the case.