538 just moved PA from Harris+1 to EVEN

[lees1975]

45. That's because there are two big red flag polls being averaged into the data.

Trafalgar, which has Trump at +2 in PA, and the Republican PAC in PA, Sentinel Action, which has her even. Oh, and there's Insider Advantage, another very right leaning poll. Take those out and that leaves 3 with her leading by 1, and two with her leading by 4. There's a very large Redfield and Wilson, also a Republican leaning poll, over 5,000 in the sample, where she's +1. I don't know how they get their half-percent margin with the total number in the samples leaning heavily in the direction of three polls showing a trend up to +4, but I don't trust this aggregate to be anywhere close to accurate. Patriot is also a GOP youtube channel poll. So it looks to me like it's Harris, +2 at least, with this limited data. Of course, the Philadelphia Inquirer poll, where she's +4, has been ignored here. And I tend to think they've got a better fix on where it is than anyone else does.

Don't sweat it. She's going to win in PA by somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 votes.