Trump is going to lose. PERIOD!

[lees1975]

12. I think there are a couple of others, one with a tight senate race no one is noticing, that might also go to Harris.

Lucas Kunce is really holding his own against Josh Hawley in Missouri. I have relatives there who say that the ground game appears to be pretty hefty and people are tired of Hawley's corruption going back to his days as attorney general.

I was in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and I know that reading the signs, i.e. yard signs, is not a good way to predict. But it sure leaves the impression that Harris is doing a lot better there than expected. There's very little recent polling data for Iowa, most of it based on when Biden was still running, which is why I think most of the current polling models are wrong. The areas around Clinton and Dubuque and Davenport seem to be pretty blue.