Who knows, really. A day at the pool is probably more productive than trying to figure out the PA electorate TBH.
PA is a weird state. The heavily Republican areas outside Philly that used to cancel out the city vote have reversed and become Democratic strongholds (Chester, Delaware, Montgomery). Never in my lifetime did I expect that. BUT, this Democratic surge in the Philly suburbs has been offset by the disappearance of Democratic votes in a lot of the more rural areas and increased population in several south central counties that are Republican strongholds (Cumberland, Lancaster, Lebanon, York) has also offset this change. In the west, Pittsburgh remains in Democratic hands but the surrounding counties have become much more Republican over the years and the population has shrunk.
The overall effect has been a decline in the Democratic advantage in the registered voter numbers. Between 2019 and 2023 Democratic registration has declined by 167k while Republican registration has increased by 200k. So the Democratic advantage in registered voters has dramatically changed since the last Presidential election. If trends continue, PA will probably be Red at some point in the future.
My guess is PA will not be called for a few days. That's what happened in 2020. No votes can be tallied before election day. So what will happen is the less populous Republican counties will finish counting Tuesday night. The more populous Democratic counties will probably not finish counting for a day or two or even three. Hopefully people will be patient. I could see some Republican shenanigans occurring in places where vote tallies are extended for a few days. Trump will probably hold a good lead until the more populous counties finish their vote counting. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't Republican attempts to stop the vote tally after a day or so if they are ahead.
Try not to obsess too much on PA. It'll probably be close and the vote tallying will probably drag out until Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday.
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