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mchill

(1,191 posts)

60. Selzer, the Des Moines Register pollster on MSNBC

Sat Nov 2, 2024, 09:41 PM

Nov 2024

The 6 week abortion ban went into effect this last summer and Iowans are starting to see the consequences. Also, Trump lost no actual ground since Sept—same number of voters, but the size of the actual voter pool increased and most of those respondents went to Kamala Harris.

She also notes neither candidate gets to 50% so still some swing left for voting day. Most importantly, she said that polls deciding that they know what the future electorate looks like maybe basing it Donald Trump on past electorate (explaining the Emerson poll you mention) which would overly favor the previous winner.

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big BIG BREAKING NEWS... IOWA: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day 47-44 [View all] WarGamer Nov 2024 OP

That's the gold standard in Iowa. RandySF Nov 2024 #1

indeed it is. WarGamer Nov 2024 #3

Selzer's been an outlier before Bernardo de La Paz Nov 2024 #49

Great news! senseandsensibility Nov 2024 #2

Now THAT would be something. Fiendish Thingy Nov 2024 #4

If he is trying to hold on to Iowa at this point newdeal2 Nov 2024 #6

I better get some Martinelli's to chill for Tuesday...nt Fiendish Thingy Nov 2024 #9

Drumph just filled his diaper Tribetime Nov 2024 #10

With only two days left to campaign.... calguy Nov 2024 #44

A great start !! C_U_L8R Nov 2024 #5

Holy shit 400 EV is possible Tribetime Nov 2024 #7

WOW!! Hope this is true!! bluestarone Nov 2024 #8

Loved this sentence....... a kennedy Nov 2024 #11

Obama did it in 2008! 50 Shades Of Blue Nov 2024 #12

WOW!! This is J. Ann Selzer's poll, arguably the best pollster. onetexan Nov 2024 #13

Good to Know, onetexan.. Cha Nov 2024 #59

Doesn't it? I believe Kamala will win all 7 swing states, and then some! onetexan Nov 2024 #67

I Surely Hope So!. with All my Heart and Soul! 🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈 Cha Nov 2024 #78

Remember - Iowa was the 4th state to recognize same gender marriages. Ms. Toad Nov 2024 #14

I just heard about this. Quiet Em Nov 2024 #15

I always knew Iowa was winnable. clutterbox1830 Nov 2024 #16

Ohio is possible now too.... and Florida and Texas Tribetime Nov 2024 #18

I agree although clutterbox1830 Nov 2024 #23

Lets hope those thunderstorms end early. LisaL Nov 2024 #37

There was a recent poll showing her doing well in Kansas Sky Jewels Nov 2024 #17

Please, oh please, be true. Music Man Nov 2024 #19

This tweet from the chair of the Iowa GOP aged horribly in under two hours: demmiblue Nov 2024 #20

damn... WarGamer Nov 2024 #21

... Nevilledog Nov 2024 #22

FUCKING LOVE THIS AKwannabe Nov 2024 #42

Emerson has Trump by 10 in Iowa today. Their methodology must be completely different? Quixote1818 Nov 2024 #24

they say the person behind the DMR poll, Ann Selzer... is basically never wrong. WarGamer Nov 2024 #27

Yeah, it's A+ rated and their track record is pretty flawless from what I am seeing. nt Quixote1818 Nov 2024 #28

flawless is over the top iin my opinion Tetrachloride Nov 2024 #31

Mr. Spock agrees. nt BootinUp Nov 2024 #52

This is why I might be able to sleep MadameButterfly Nov 2024 #66

Emerson has been bullish on Trump this entire Deminpenn Nov 2024 #53

Emerson is one of the polls Simon Rosenberg warned us about Qutzupalotl Nov 2024 #72

Emerson isn't a partisan pollster, but Deminpenn Nov 2024 #74

Selzer, the Des Moines Register pollster on MSNBC mchill Nov 2024 #60

That's a big one. I'm hoping for my country that we see lots of similar surprises on Tuesday. That, and not... NNadir Nov 2024 #25

K&R spanone Nov 2024 #26

Wow Tweedy Nov 2024 #29

This would suggest we take House and expand Senate Tribetime Nov 2024 #30

Oh, please make it come true! 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞 wordstroken Nov 2024 #32

Landslide, anyone? Even a small landslide? usonian Nov 2024 #33

I'm very optimistic, but I don't want to use the "L" word yet FakeNoose Nov 2024 #38

Yes, the big W. usonian Nov 2024 #43

It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World! FakeNoose Nov 2024 #45

OMG!!! Sogo Nov 2024 #34

Down ballot races Strelnikov_ Nov 2024 #35

Lets go!!! nt LexVegas Nov 2024 #36

This poll could be off by 10 points liberalmuse Nov 2024 #39

right! It could be off 8 and... jcgoldie Nov 2024 #47

Tim Miller on The Bulwark ibegurpard Nov 2024 #56

Yah, was just watching Kyle Kulinkski's commentary on it... ThePartyThatListens Nov 2024 #40

If this poll is accurate and if Iowa voters' behavior follows the polls Vogon_Glory Nov 2024 #41

Or maybe Walz as VP giving the ticket a Midwestern sensibility. Music Man Nov 2024 #46

:-) Lemon Lyman Nov 2024 #48

Fantastic if true, it also could be an outlier 0rganism Nov 2024 #50

Could 2024 Iowa be 2008's Indiana? ibegurpard Nov 2024 #51

According to Ann Selzer, women (white) are responsible for this, especially those over 65 who vote in greater numbers... AntiFascist Nov 2024 #54

An Idea Florida Dem Nov 2024 #55

HOPEFULLY It's Absolutely 💯 Cha Nov 2024 #57

Tim Miller interviewed Ann Seltzer Deminpenn Nov 2024 #58

;-) Lemon Lyman Nov 2024 #61

Match's my observations as well Strelnikov_ Nov 2024 #70

There are Trumpers around me who had signs in 2016, Deminpenn Nov 2024 #75

The only pollster to correctly predict Obama's victory dalton99a Nov 2024 #62

Well this is a Holy Shit moment! NBachers Nov 2024 #63

Just like old times? Zambero Nov 2024 #64

Are you feeling it yet?? peggysue2 Nov 2024 #65

I wonder how many red states are going blue. Emile Nov 2024 #68

Post removed Post removed Nov 2024 #69

Iowa voted Obama twice . . . and then Trump twice. And you think there isn't something satanic going on? hawkeye21 Nov 2024 #71

Someone posted that Iowa has been hit hard by the Abortion bans Thrill Nov 2024 #73

Lack of obgyn's hits women of all ages... seniors included getagrip_already Nov 2024 #76

Mr. Bayard is from Iowa, and has relatives there Bayard Nov 2024 #77