When will we get a pretty good idea of a victory for Harris on Tuesday night?

[Metaphorical]

11. I think Iowa will be the bellwether state

Iowa and Ohio have tended to mirror one another politically for a while now. If either Iowa or Ohio go blue (and I think Iowa probably will, while it will be closer in Ohio) then the blue wall has held. My other reference indicator is North Carolina. If both Ohio and Iowa go blue, it'll be a blowout.

In my opinion, both Florida and Texas are so ratf*ked as to be unattainable. If Florida goes Blue, Trump's going to be hard-pressed to hit 200 EVs, because if FL goes, so will GA and TN, and possibly IN. I think that TX refusal to allow Federal pollwatchers is evidence that Greg Abbott is nervous enough that they plan to cheat any way possible. Personally, I think the feds should fly in watchers in black suits and sunglasses in black helicopters, if nothing else than to freak Abbott out, but that would probably not be astute politically.

I think in the West that NV and CO will probably go to Kamala, not as sure about AZ.

Here's what I think we'll end up with:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDY2ODQ3ODI0OTIw7UuSHFmWbUGSbUFRZFuSbVeKZcW1Kg

and here's what I think a blowout would look like (if Trump has a truly bad night)
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDY2ODY0MzIxOTkwLUuSJFmSbEmSbUGSZFmSLVuSZUm2Kg

As to time, I don't think we'll know conclusively until Thursday, but I don't see it dragging out much past that. Again, NC or IA will be the kicker. If we're losing Pennsylvania by Tuesday at midnight, we've lost.