General Discussion

Algernon Moncrieff

(5,961 posts)

9. 538

Mon Nov 4, 2024, 02:08 AM

Nov 2024

538

UPDATED Nov. 3, 2024, at 7:03 PM

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 46 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

While that model leans a little toward Trump, it's essentially a coin toss.

And pollsters get it wrong. They got it most famously wrong in 2016, but think back just two years ago to the "Red Wave" that was predicted in the midterms. It turned out to be a gigantic fizzle.

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We just don't know what will happen Tuesday [View all] edhopper Nov 2024 OP

The stakes are high IbogaProject Nov 2024 #1

👍 underpants Nov 2024 #2

Kamala will win - Trump will contest. OAITW r.2.0 Nov 2024 #3

Vote, Volunteer and GOTV Aepps22 Nov 2024 #4

Our media has surely failed us. imho spanone Nov 2024 #5

Embrace uncertainty indeed. TomSlick Nov 2024 #6

I know what's going to happen. BannonsLiver Nov 2024 #7

In 2016, there were some Democratic old heads... appmanga Nov 2024 #8

538 Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2024 #9

What's their edhopper Nov 2024 #10

Here is today's forecast and what they wrote that speaks to your point. Algernon Moncrieff Nov 2024 #12

I accept and tolerate the uncertainty. I don't embrace it. DFW Nov 2024 #11