We just don't know what will happen Tuesday

[Algernon Moncrieff]

12. Here is today's forecast and what they wrote that speaks to your point.

538

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 52 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 48 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

Now that we are in the closing days of the 2024 presidential race, pollsters have started releasing their final readings of the campaign. They have mostly been a mixed bag. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in Wisconsin. That would be good news for Harris if those were the only polls released this week, but they weren’t: An Echelon Insights survey found Trump up 5 points in the Keystone State, and CNN/SSRS has the former president up by 1 in Georgia. In aggregate, this has been enough to push our model modestly back in Harris’s direction. Currently, our forecast gives Trump a 52 out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a 48 out of 100 chance.

Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing” in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.