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MadameButterfly

(4,159 posts)
13. Allie briefly mention them so I suspect they still exist
Wed Nov 6, 2024, 05:30 AM
Nov 2024

They were damaged when 2004 exit polls showed Kerry winnning in 16 states, then in the wee hours of the morning shifted to Bush. Statisticians said the odds of that were some number so small it essentially meant none, without shenanigans.

Everyone assumed the exit polls were flawed, not the vote totals. I think the exit poll company that did Florida for Bush vs Gore went out of business, the public assuming that the exit poll that called it for Gore early in the evening must have been wrong, not the vote totals.

I don't know if exit polls have been supressed since then so much as access to them. They used to get leaked. Kerry thought he'd won the election. Exit polls are accurate compared to other polls. Germany used them to call elections while they waited 2 weeks to count by hand in 2004, don't know what they do now. I've wished since 2004 we could compare vote tallies to exit polls to see if they match, but I havent been able to find anything for each state, only stats for demographics. They don't want to stir the pot. Even though exit polls have been used by the Carter Center to keep 3rd world countries honest in their elections. The assumption by Dems and Republicans alike seems to have been that we don't need that.

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